App State Mountaineers

Men's · Sun Belt Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: at Auburn · Mon 9 Nov, 9 PM ET

App State2%98%Auburn

Projected 61-84 · Game page

Makes the tournament16%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.9

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-13

Net rating−3.3Rank 162 of 365 · offence 205, defence 134

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 20-13 (15 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 22%
Wins the conference tournament: 16%
Average seed if in the field: 13.9
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field16%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Merrimackrank 260	Neutral	49%	62-63	W 63-49	Wrong
Wed 4 Nov	vs Christendomnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 108-43
Mon 9 Nov9 PM ET	at Auburnrank 19	Away	2%	61-84	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 16% · the next 7 days

Mon 9 Nov: at AuburnA win: 17% · a loss: 16%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jaylen ColonG	2	25.5	11.5	4.5	3.5	−1.1	+0.4
Ben KopetzkiG	2	23.5	8.5	4.5	1.0	−1.1	+0.4
Eren BanksG	2	21.5	5.5	3.5	2.5	−1.8	+0.1
Ted NealF	2	18.0	7.5	3.5	2.5	−0.8	+0.4
Rrezon ElezajC · transfer from UConn	2	14.5	5.0	5.5	0.0	+2.4	+1.1
Chad MoodieF	2	14.0	4.5	3.5	0.0	−0.7	+0.3
Da'Mori LytchF	2	13.5	8.5	4.5	1.5	−0.6	+0.3
Mason CostelloG	2	10.5	7.5	2.0	0.5	−0.5	+0.3
Andrin NjockF	2	10.0	2.0	1.0	0.5	+0.4	+0.4
Jonathan MossG	1	19.0	10.0	3.0	4.0	−0.5	+0.5
Hermann KoffiG · transfer from Stonehill	2	8.5	3.0	2.0	0.5	−2.0	0.0
Corbin AllenG	1	14.0	11.0	6.0	3.0	−0.3	+0.4
KJ VasserG	1	12.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	−0.3	+0.4
Cameron O'KelleyG	1	8.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	−1.3	+0.1
Bryan ChretienC	1	8.0	10.0	5.0	0.0	−0.2	+0.3
Luke LedfordG	1	7.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	−1.1	+0.1
Jackson LoveG	1	7.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	−0.2	+0.2
Grant ClaytonF	1	6.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 217	48.8%rank 35	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.4%rank 325	18.4%rank 228	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	34.3%rank 15	32.0%rank 254	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.3%rank 124	23.0%rank 31	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.5 expected (+0.5)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +2.5 points a game (they shot 27.8%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −7.2
Last season's net rating: −2.5
Last season's minutes returning: 23%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.8
Change since preseason: +3.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 101.7 (rank 205)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 105.0 (rank 134)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 69.0 (rank 362)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −10.6 (rank 206)

Sun Belt Conference by rating

14 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	App State	2-0	0-0	−3.3	101.7	105.0	162
2	Arkansas State	1-0	0-0	−4.0	101.0	105.0	171
3	Marshall	1-0	0-0	−4.1	103.3	107.4	172
4	Louisiana Tech	1-0	0-0	−4.2	104.2	108.4	174
5	Troy	0-1	0-0	−5.8	100.7	106.5	194
6	South Alabama	0-1	0-0	−6.5	102.1	108.6	208
7	Old Dominion	2-0	0-0	−7.2	98.8	106.0	219
8	Southern Miss	1-0	0-0	−9.5	99.2	108.7	250
9	Coastal Carolina	0-1	0-0	−10.0	99.3	109.3	257
10	James Madison	0-1	0-0	−10.7	100.2	110.9	265
11	Georgia Southern	1-0	0-0	−10.8	98.3	109.2	270
12	Georgia State	0-1	0-0	−15.2	96.1	111.2	314
13	Louisiana	0-1	0-0	−15.3	95.2	110.6	321
14	UL Monroe	1-1	0-0	−18.3	96.1	114.4	338