Auburn Tigers

Men's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs App State · Mon 9 Nov, 9 PM ET

App State2%98%Auburn

Projected 84-61 · Game page

Makes the tournament73%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 5.6

Wins the national title1%Final Four 5% · projected 21-10

Net rating+21.7Rank 19 of 365 · offence 17, defence 32

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 21-10 (16 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 5%
Wins the conference tournament: 5%
Average seed if in the field: 5.6
A 1 seed: 2%

Makes the field73%
Round of 3257%
Sweet 1628%
Elite Eight12%
Final Four5%
Title game2%
Champion1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Wed 4 Nov	vs SE Louisianarank 295	Home	100%	92-57	W 92-59	Right
Mon 9 Nov9 PM ET	vs App Staterank 162	Home	98%	84-61	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 73% · the next 7 days

Mon 9 Nov: vs App StateA win: 73% · a loss: 70%+3 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Thomas DowdF · transfer from Troy	1	27.0	9.0	6.0	1.0	+5.1	+3.5
Kevin OvertonG	1	23.0	12.0	2.0	2.0	+5.8	+3.2
Tahaad PettifordG	1	22.0	18.0	2.0	4.0	+5.8	+3.1
Adam OlsenF · transfer from South Alabama	1	21.0	3.0	3.0	1.0	+2.9	+1.9
Bukky OboyeC · transfer from Santa Clara	1	20.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	+6.8	+3.2
Caleb WilliamsG	1	19.0	7.0	2.0	3.0	+1.3	+1.1
Narcisse NgoyC	1	19.0	10.0	9.0	0.0	+1.3	+1.1
George Kimble IIIG	1	16.0	10.0	1.0	2.0	+1.4	+1.0
Kolby KingG · transfer from Utah State	1	15.0	12.0	7.0	1.0	+6.6	+2.3
Owen FreemanF · transfer from Creighton	1	12.0	7.0	6.0	0.0	+7.1	+2.0
Simon WalkerG	1	2.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	+4.1	+0.2
Drake CardwellG	1	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+3.4	+0.2
Blake MuschalekG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+3.1	+0.1
Jeremiah BowmanF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.8	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.2%rank 77	48.7%rank 33	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.1%rank 299	18.3%rank 250	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	33.7%rank 29	33.2%rank 322	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.6%rank 248	24.2%rank 87	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +8.0 points a game (they shot 24.2%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +23.7
Last season's net rating: +19.5
Last season's minutes returning: 35%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +4.1
Change since preseason: −2.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 117.8 (rank 17)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 96.1 (rank 32)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.7 (rank 140)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −13.2 (rank 230)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Florida	1-0	0-0	+32.8	121.2	88.5	2
2	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+27.7	119.1	91.4	7
3	Alabama	1-0	0-0	+24.4	118.3	94.0	13
4	Vanderbilt	1-0	0-0	+24.1	117.0	93.0	14
5	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+21.7	117.8	96.1	19
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+20.9	116.7	95.8	23
7	Texas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	118.5	97.7	25
8	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	116.8	96.0	26
9	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+20.1	118.1	98.0	30
10	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+19.7	114.5	94.9	32
11	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+16.9	112.3	95.4	37
12	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	113.1	96.3	39
13	Oklahoma	0-1	0-0	+15.3	114.0	98.7	49
14	LSU	1-0	0-0	+13.1	111.3	98.2	59
15	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+9.5	110.2	100.7	82
16	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+7.0	111.7	104.7	94