Texas A&M Aggies

Men's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs N Kentucky · Fri 6 Nov, 8 PM ET

N Kentucky3%97%Texas A&M

Projected 91-69 · Game page

Makes the tournament44%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 6.9

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 19-14

Net rating+17.0Rank 36 of 365 · offence 66, defence 24

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-14 (14 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 6.9
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field44%
Round of 3229%
Sweet 1611%
Elite Eight4%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Alabama Staterank 322	Home	99%	92-61	W 97-66	Right
Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET	vs Northern Kentuckyrank 176	Home	97%	91-69	—
Mon 9 Nov8 PM ET	vs UL Monroerank 338	Home	100%	94-61	—
Thu 12 Nov8 PM ET	vs Oklahoma Staterank 54	Home	70%	82-75	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 44% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Northern KentuckyA win: 44% · a loss: 40%+4 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs Oklahoma StateA win: 46% · a loss: 39%+7 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jordan PopeG · transfer from Texas	1	31.0	17.0	2.0	1.0	+3.5	+3.1
PJ HaggertyG · transfer from Kansas St	1	27.0	22.0	3.0	0.0	+4.6	+3.3
Jalen ShelleyF · transfer from LMU	1	24.0	14.0	12.0	3.0	+2.4	+2.0
Mackenzie MgbakoF	1	22.0	12.0	5.0	1.0	+3.2	+2.1
Cade PhillipsF · transfer from Tennessee	1	21.0	7.0	5.0	0.0	+3.9	+2.3
Tyshawn ArchieG · transfer from McNeese	1	20.0	11.0	8.0	3.0	+5.2	+2.6
Jalen ReeceG · transfer from LSU	1	13.0	2.0	1.0	3.0	+2.4	+1.1
Zach ClemenceF	1	11.0	4.0	0.0	1.0	+4.0	+1.2
Jamie VinsonF	1	11.0	6.0	2.0	0.0	+4.8	+1.4
Lukas WallsG · transfer from Radford	1	10.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	−0.1	+0.4
Josh IrvingF	1	7.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	+0.2	+0.3
Jeremiah GreenG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.4	+0.1
Chris McDermottF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.7	+0.1
Kyle MoranG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.4	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.2%rank 146	48.9%rank 60	50.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.9%rank 79	20.2%rank 11	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.3%rank 237	33.1%rank 315	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	28.7%rank 21	25.3%rank 139	25.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −1.1 points a game (they shot 33.3%, league 31.9%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.9 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +17.3
Last season's net rating: +18.4
Last season's minutes returning: 14%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +7.1
Change since preseason: −0.3

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 112.2 (rank 66)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 95.2 (rank 24)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.2 (rank 13)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −15.9 (rank 265)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Florida	1-0	0-0	+32.8	121.1	88.3	2
2	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+27.8	119.0	91.2	8
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+25.0	115.7	90.8	11
4	Alabama	1-0	0-0	+24.4	118.2	93.8	13
5	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+21.8	117.7	95.9	19
6	Texas	1-0	0-0	+21.8	119.5	97.7	20
7	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+20.9	116.7	95.8	24
8	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+20.6	116.3	95.7	26
9	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+20.2	118.0	97.8	30
10	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+19.7	113.8	94.1	32
11	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+17.0	112.2	95.2	36
12	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+16.9	113.0	96.1	39
13	Oklahoma	0-1	0-0	+15.4	113.9	98.5	48
14	LSU	1-0	0-0	+13.2	111.2	98.0	60
15	Mississippi State	2-0	0-0	+12.4	113.9	101.4	66
16	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+9.5	110.1	100.6	81