UL Monroe Warhawks
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 7-24
Net rating−18.3Rank 337 of 365 · offence 317, defence 346
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 7-24 (4 to 11 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 4-14
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Central Michiganrank 244 | Home | 38% | 67-71 | L 78-83 | Right |
| Wed 4 Nov | vs Champion Christiannot Division I | Home | — | — | W 99-55 | |
| Mon 9 Nov8 PM ET | at Texas A&Mrank 37 | Away | 0% | 61-94 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET | at TCUrank 35 | Away | 0% | 59-92 | — |
Rooting guide
- No games this week
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayjaun AndersonG · transfer from UAB | 2 | 30.5 | 21.5 | 4.0 | 2.5 | −3.3 | −0.7 |
| Phillip TillmanG | 2 | 28.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | −3.9 | −0.9 |
| Quaran McPhersonG · transfer from UAB | 2 | 27.0 | 18.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | −2.9 | −0.4 |
| Lance CarrF · transfer from UAB | 2 | 24.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −4.0 | −0.9 |
| Ziyade NdanckyC | 2 | 23.0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 0.5 | −3.7 | −0.7 |
| Mike WhiteG | 2 | 20.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | −3.6 | −0.6 |
| Robert CowherdG · transfer from Southern Miss | 2 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | −5.5 | −0.7 |
| Guillaume SchoentgenF | 2 | 8.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | −3.2 | −0.2 |
| Jean LafleurC · transfer from Tennessee St | 2 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | −4.5 | −0.3 |
| Grant ChamberlainF | 1 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −3.0 | −0.2 |
| Khalil LondonG · transfer from Tennessee St | 1 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −4.1 | −0.3 |
| Cooper NelsonG | 1 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −2.9 | −0.1 |
| Martins AdonryC | 1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.9 | −0.1 |
| Jakeel RegisteF | 1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.8 | −0.1 |
| Cam CampbellG | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −6.8 | −0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 48.8%rank 332 | 52.3%rank 336 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.7%rank 242 | 18.8%rank 109 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 33.1%rank 55 | 34.5%rank 352 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.1%rank 223 | 25.1%rank 144 | 25.3% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.4 expected (−0.4)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −7.9 points a game (they shot 41.4%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.6 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 0-1
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −18.6
- Last season's net rating
- −21.7
- Last season's minutes returning
- 0%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.5
- Change since preseason
- +0.3
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 96.2 (rank 317)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 114.5 (rank 346)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.4 (rank 58)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −9.0 (rank 198)
Sun Belt Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | App State | 2-0 | 0-0 | −3.3 | 101.8 | 105.1 | 162 |
| 2 | Arkansas State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.0 | 101.0 | 105.1 | 170 |
| 3 | Marshall | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.1 | 103.4 | 107.5 | 172 |
| 4 | Louisiana Tech | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.2 | 104.2 | 108.5 | 174 |
| 5 | Troy | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.8 | 100.8 | 106.6 | 195 |
| 6 | South Alabama | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.5 | 102.2 | 108.7 | 209 |
| 7 | Old Dominion | 2-0 | 0-0 | −7.2 | 98.9 | 106.0 | 220 |
| 8 | Southern Miss | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.5 | 99.3 | 108.8 | 250 |
| 9 | Coastal Carolina | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.0 | 99.4 | 109.4 | 257 |
| 10 | James Madison | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 100.2 | 110.9 | 265 |
| 11 | Georgia Southern | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.8 | 98.4 | 109.2 | 270 |
| 12 | Georgia State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.2 | 96.1 | 111.3 | 315 |
| 13 | Louisiana | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 95.3 | 110.7 | 321 |
| 14 | UL Monroe | 1-1 | 0-0 | −18.3 | 96.2 | 114.5 | 337 |