TCU Horned Frogs

Men's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Southern · Fri 6 Nov, 8 PM ET

Southern1%99%TCU

Projected 89-60 · Game page

Makes the tournament46%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.2

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 19-12

Net rating+17.3Rank 35 of 365 · offence 54, defence 25

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-12 (15 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 7.2
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field46%
Round of 3229%
Sweet 1610%
Elite Eight4%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Lindenwoodrank 326	Home	99%	84-54	W 98-59	Right
Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET	vs Southernrank 291	Home	99%	89-60	—
Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET	vs UL Monroerank 338	Home	100%	93-59	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 46% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs SouthernA win: 46% · a loss: 43%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Trent LincolnG	1	29.0	12.0	3.0	3.0	+0.4	+1.3
DJ ThomasF · transfer from West Virginia	1	28.0	19.0	3.0	1.0	+3.9	+3.0
Tanner ToolsonG	1	27.0	10.0	3.0	1.0	+4.2	+3.1
Micah RobinsonG	1	26.0	19.0	3.0	4.0	+5.1	+3.4
Brock HardingG	1	26.0	17.0	5.0	5.0	+4.3	+3.0
Ricards AizpursG	1	14.0	7.0	1.0	1.0	+0.8	+0.7
Ryan HuntF	1	14.0	5.0	8.0	1.0	+0.8	+0.7
Luke BamgboyeF · transfer from Texas Tech	1	13.0	0.0	3.0	0.0	+5.7	+1.8
Xavier EdmondsF	1	13.0	9.0	5.0	3.0	+7.8	+2.3
Milos SojicF	1	7.0	0.0	3.0	0.0	+0.9	+0.4
Gavin MurphyG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.1
Drew McElroyG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+3.0	+0.1
Jack WegmanG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.3%rank 222	50.2%rank 134	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.8%rank 250	19.5%rank 35	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	33.6%rank 34	33.3%rank 323	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	27.9%rank 27	23.2%rank 42	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +5.4 points a game (they shot 23.8%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +8.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +16.8
Last season's net rating: +17.6
Last season's minutes returning: 51%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.5
Change since preseason: +0.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 112.8 (rank 54)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 95.5 (rank 25)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.8 (rank 120)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −15.8 (rank 258)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Houston	1-0	0-0	+30.6	120.0	89.5	3
2	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+30.6	119.8	89.2	3
3	Iowa State	0-1	0-0	+27.2	120.0	92.8	9
4	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+27.2	117.9	90.7	10
5	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+24.8	115.0	90.2	11
6	Arizona	0-1	0-0	+22.8	117.5	94.7	16
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+20.8	120.2	99.3	24
8	TCU	1-0	0-0	+17.3	112.8	95.5	35
9	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	109.7	92.9	38
10	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+16.3	114.3	98.0	42
11	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+15.4	112.5	97.1	45
12	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+14.7	114.3	99.6	52
13	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+12.4	112.6	100.2	63
14	UCF	1-0	0-0	+10.7	114.3	103.6	72
15	Utah	1-0	0-0	+7.2	108.0	100.8	91
16	Kansas State	0-1	0-0	+3.3	105.0	101.7	114