Kansas State Wildcats

Men's · Big 12 Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs CSU Northridge · Fri 6 Nov, 9 PM ET

CSU Northridge16%84%Kansas St

Projected 83-71 · Game page

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 10-20

Net rating+3.4Rank 114 of 365 · offence 135, defence 97

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 10-20 (6 to 13 wins)
Projected conference record: 2-16
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: 0%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field1%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs South Dakota Staterank 163	Home	85%	83-70	L 66-68	Wrong
Fri 6 Nov9 PM ET	vs Cal State Northridgerank 191	Home	84%	83-71	—
Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET	vs Creightonrank 49	Home	31%	73-78	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 0% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Cal State NorthridgeA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs CreightonA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jaden SchuttG · transfer from Virginia Tech	1	35.0	6.0	3.0	2.0	+0.6	+1.7
Brandon RechsteinerG · transfer from Colorado St	1	34.0	16.0	7.0	3.0	+1.8	+2.4
Isaiah AbrahamF · transfer from Georgetown	1	32.0	16.0	2.0	0.0	+0.1	+1.3
Dez LindsayF · transfer from Oregon	1	21.0	2.0	5.0	1.0	+0.8	+1.1
Pape N'DiayeF · transfer from Xavier	1	18.0	18.0	8.0	1.0	+1.0	+1.0
Montana WheelerG · transfer from Bradley	1	17.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	+0.3	+0.7
Brock ViceF · transfer from Murray St	1	15.0	2.0	3.0	2.0	+0.8	+0.8
Jaylen AlexanderG	1	15.0	4.0	0.0	2.0	−0.9	+0.3
Matt GilhoolF	1	7.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.2
JT RockC · transfer from New Mexico	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+5.3	+0.4
Andrej KosticG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.8	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.3%rank 282	51.3%rank 302	50.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.8%rank 256	17.6%rank 325	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.1%rank 325	30.4%rank 58	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.2%rank 231	24.2%rank 74	25.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.8 expected (−0.8)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −7.1 points a game (they shot 41.7%, league 31.9%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.0 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 0-1

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +5.1
Last season's net rating: +7.5
Last season's minutes returning: 5%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +8.2
Change since preseason: −1.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 104.8 (rank 135)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 101.5 (rank 97)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.2 (rank 13)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −3.4 (rank 141)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Houston	1-0	0-0	+30.7	120.0	89.2	3
2	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+30.7	119.5	88.8	3
3	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+27.9	117.9	90.0	7
4	Iowa State	0-1	0-0	+27.2	119.8	92.6	10
5	Cincinnati	2-0	0-0	+23.2	114.0	90.8	15
6	Arizona	0-1	0-0	+22.8	117.3	94.6	16
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+20.8	120.0	99.2	25
8	TCU	1-0	0-0	+17.4	112.7	95.3	35
9	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.9	109.6	92.7	37
10	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.7	98.4	49
11	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+14.8	114.2	99.4	52
12	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+14.5	112.5	98.0	54
13	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+12.5	112.5	100.0	64
14	UCF	1-0	0-0	+10.8	114.2	103.4	73
15	Utah	1-0	0-0	+7.4	107.9	100.6	90
16	Kansas State	0-1	0-0	+3.4	104.8	101.5	114