Cal State Northridge Matadors
Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.4
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-17
Net rating−5.4Rank 190 of 365 · offence 232, defence 159
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-17 (10 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-12
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 2%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 3%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.4
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field3%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov | at Wichita Staterank 80 | Away | 5% | 67-87 | L 67-79 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov9 PM ET | at Kansas Staterank 113 | Away | 16% | 72-84 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov10 PM ET | vs Grace Universitynot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at Kansas StateA win: 2% · a loss: 2%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josiah DavisG | 1 | 35.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | +1.4 |
| Mikah BallewG · transfer from Portland | 1 | 34.0 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| BJ OmotF | 1 | 31.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| Brooklyn HicksG · transfer from Montana | 1 | 27.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | +0.1 | +1.1 |
| Jael MartinF · transfer from LMU | 1 | 26.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −1.3 | +0.3 |
| Keziah EkissiG · transfer from Oregon St | 1 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −1.3 | +0.2 |
| Caleb SmithG · transfer from Rider | 1 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | −2.8 | −0.1 |
| Lamine NiangC · transfer from UT Martin | 1 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −0.5 | +0.2 |
| Emmanuel StephenC · transfer from UNLV | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | +0.2 |
| Daniel CulbersonG | 1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.5%rank 291 | 47.9%rank 8 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 17.4%rank 20 | 16.5%rank 365 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.4%rank 230 | 29.9%rank 30 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.1%rank 216 | 23.5%rank 54 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +2.2 points a game (they shot 29.6%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −7.2
- Last season's net rating
- −2.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 17%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −4.3
- Change since preseason
- +1.8
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 100.7 (rank 232)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 106.1 (rank 159)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 74.4 (rank 2)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +9.6 (rank 78)
Big West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UC San Diego | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 105.7 | 101.4 | 107 |
| 2 | UC Irvine | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 104.3 | 100.1 | 108 |
| 3 | Utah Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.4 | 106.1 | 102.7 | 112 |
| 4 | UC Santa Barbara | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.1 | 106.3 | 106.2 | 125 |
| 5 | Cal Poly | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.0 | 106.2 | 107.2 | 135 |
| 6 | Cal State Northridge | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.4 | 100.7 | 106.1 | 190 |
| 7 | California Baptist | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.2 | 98.6 | 104.8 | 200 |
| 8 | Cal State Fullerton | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.4 | 103.7 | 110.1 | 207 |
| 9 | UC Riverside | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.2 | 100.5 | 108.6 | 235 |
| 10 | Long Beach State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.0 | 98.6 | 107.5 | 245 |
| 11 | Sacramento State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.2 | 99.8 | 110.0 | 258 |
| 12 | Cal State Bakersfield | 0-0 | 0-0 | −12.1 | 98.8 | 110.9 | 283 |