Cal Poly Mustangs
Makes the tournament10%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.7
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-15
Net rating−1.0Rank 135 of 365 · offence 113, defence 181
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 18-15 (11 to 24 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 13-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 10%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 9%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.7
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field10%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Cal State San Marcosnot Division I | Home | — | — | W 78-62 | |
| Thu 5 Nov10:30 PM ET | at Arizonarank 16 | Away | 2% | 69-94 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov9 PM ET | at Grand Canyonrank 70 | Away | 12% | 74-88 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at ArizonaA win: 15% · a loss: 10%+6 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: at Grand CanyonA win: 11% · a loss: 10%+2 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jess Esso EssisG | 1 | 28.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | −0.6 | +0.7 |
| Cayden WardG | 1 | 27.0 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 5.0 | +0.6 | +1.4 |
| Guzman VasilicG | 1 | 26.0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | −1.2 | +0.4 |
| Hamad MousaG | 1 | 24.0 | 18.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 | +2.3 |
| Jackson MosleyPG | 1 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | −1.3 | +0.3 |
| Ali AssranF | 1 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
| Troy PlumtreeF | 1 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −0.4 | +0.5 |
| Austin GoodeF | 1 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −1.1 | +0.3 |
| Anthony MooreG | 1 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | +0.3 |
| Aaron Price Jr.PF | 1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.5 | +0.2 |
| Braden FreemanF | 1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | +0.2 |
| Jake DavisG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.5 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.4%rank 135 | 50.4%rank 153 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.6%rank 155 | 18.6%rank 133 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 127 | 31.7%rank 162 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.2%rank 133 | 25.2%rank 152 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −1.0
- Last season's net rating
- −4.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 82%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 106.2 (rank 113)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 107.2 (rank 181)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 74.5 (rank 1)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Big West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UC San Diego | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 105.7 | 101.4 | 107 |
| 2 | UC Irvine | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 104.3 | 100.1 | 108 |
| 3 | Utah Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.4 | 106.1 | 102.7 | 112 |
| 4 | UC Santa Barbara | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.1 | 106.3 | 106.2 | 125 |
| 5 | Cal Poly | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.0 | 106.2 | 107.2 | 135 |
| 6 | Cal State Northridge | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.4 | 100.7 | 106.1 | 190 |
| 7 | California Baptist | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.2 | 98.6 | 104.8 | 200 |
| 8 | Cal State Fullerton | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.4 | 103.7 | 110.1 | 207 |
| 9 | UC Riverside | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.2 | 100.5 | 108.6 | 235 |
| 10 | Long Beach State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.0 | 98.6 | 107.5 | 245 |
| 11 | Sacramento State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.2 | 99.8 | 110.0 | 258 |
| 12 | Cal State Bakersfield | 0-0 | 0-0 | −12.1 | 98.8 | 110.9 | 283 |