Arizona Wildcats

Men's · Big 12 Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Cal Poly · Thu 5 Nov, 10:30 PM ET

Cal Poly3%97%Arizona

Projected 94-69 · Game page

Makes the tournament73%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 5.4

Wins the national title1%Final Four 6% · projected 20-11

Net rating+22.8Rank 16 of 365 · offence 20, defence 21

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 20-11 (16 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 5%
Wins the conference tournament: 5%
Average seed if in the field: 5.4
A 1 seed: 2%

Makes the field73%
Round of 3259%
Sweet 1631%
Elite Eight14%
Final Four6%
Title game2%
Champion1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs UCLArank 22	Neutral	62%	71-67	L 75-84	Wrong
Thu 5 Nov10:30 PM ET	vs Cal Polyrank 136	Home	97%	94-69	—
Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET	vs Northern Arizonarank 260	Home	99%	92-62	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 73% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs Cal PolyA win: 73% · a loss: 68%+5 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs Northern ArizonaA win: 73% · a loss: 72%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Derek DixonG · transfer from North Carolina	1	38.0	18.0	5.0	1.0	+3.9	+4.1
Ivan KharchenkovF	1	38.0	38.0	10.0	1.0	+7.5	+6.6
JJ MandaquitG · transfer from Washington	1	32.0	3.0	2.0	6.0	+3.0	+3.0
Motiejus KrivasC	1	31.0	8.0	9.0	1.0	+9.8	+6.7
Caleb HoltG	1	27.0	7.0	7.0	0.0	+0.7	+1.4
Cameron HolmesG	1	11.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	+1.1	+0.6
Maksim BrnovicF	1	11.0	0.0	3.0	1.0	+1.1	+0.6
Bryce JamesG	1	6.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	+1.3	+0.4
Ugnius JaruseviciusF · transfer from Nebraska	1	6.0	0.0	2.0	1.0	+4.5	+0.7

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	48.9%rank 310	49.2%rank 77	50.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.9%rank 72	17.0%rank 353	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.2%rank 245	32.0%rank 255	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	28.0%rank 34	26.1%rank 256	25.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.6 expected (−0.6)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −2.3 points a game (they shot 34.5%, league 31.9%)
Opponents' free throws: −2.7 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +24.5
Last season's net rating: +37.1
Last season's minutes returning: 27%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +5.4
Change since preseason: −1.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 117.3 (rank 20)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 94.6 (rank 21)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.7 (rank 34)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +21.4 (rank 15)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Houston	1-0	0-0	+30.7	120.0	89.2	3
2	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+30.7	119.5	88.8	3
3	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+27.9	117.9	90.0	7
4	Iowa State	0-1	0-0	+27.2	119.8	92.6	10
5	Cincinnati	2-0	0-0	+23.2	114.0	90.8	15
6	Arizona	0-1	0-0	+22.8	117.3	94.6	16
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+20.8	120.0	99.2	25
8	TCU	1-0	0-0	+17.4	112.7	95.3	35
9	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.9	109.6	92.7	37
10	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.7	98.4	49
11	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+14.8	114.2	99.4	52
12	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+14.5	112.5	98.0	54
13	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+12.5	112.5	100.0	64
14	UCF	1-0	0-0	+10.8	114.2	103.4	73
15	Utah	1-0	0-0	+7.4	107.9	100.6	90
16	Kansas State	0-1	0-0	+3.4	104.8	101.5	114