Arizona Wildcats

Men's · Big 12 Conference · 1-1, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs N Arizona · Tue 10 Nov, 9 PM ET

N Arizona0%100%Arizona

Projected 93-62 · Game page

Makes the tournament76%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 5.2

Wins the national title1%Final Four 7% · projected 21-11

Net rating+23.4Rank 16 of 365 · offence 14, defence 22

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 21-11 (16 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 6%
Wins the conference tournament: 7%
Average seed if in the field: 5.2
A 1 seed: 3%

Makes the field76%
Round of 3263%
Sweet 1634%
Elite Eight16%
Final Four7%
Title game3%
Champion1%

Chance of making the field, day by day

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs UCLArank 22	Neutral	62%	71-67	L 75-84	Wrong
Thu 5 Nov	vs Cal Polyrank 141	Home	97%	94-69	W 104-84	Right
Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET	vs Northern Arizonarank 260	Home	100%	93-62	—
Fri 13 Nov9 PM ET	at Auburnrank 20	Away	38%	78-81	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 76% · the next 7 days

Fri 13 Nov: at AuburnA win: 82% · a loss: 73%+8 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Derek DixonG · transfer from North Carolina	2	34.5	13.5	3.5	3.0	+4.2	+3.9
Ivan KharchenkovF	2	33.5	27.0	10.0	4.0	+7.8	+6.0
JJ MandaquitG · transfer from Washington	2	27.0	2.5	2.0	4.0	+3.5	+2.8
Motiejus KrivasC	2	27.0	19.0	8.5	1.0	+10.1	+6.0
Caleb HoltG	2	25.0	14.0	7.5	1.0	+1.5	+1.6
Cameron HolmesG	2	16.0	7.0	2.0	1.0	+1.8	+1.1
Maksim BrnovicF	2	14.0	2.5	3.0	1.0	+1.9	+1.0
Bryce JamesG	2	11.5	2.5	0.5	1.5	+2.0	+0.8
Ugnius JaruseviciusF · transfer from Nebraska	2	6.5	0.0	1.0	0.5	+5.4	+0.9
Evan OttenF · transfer from Idaho St	1	9.0	1.0	7.0	1.0	+3.1	+0.8
Addison ArnoldG	1	1.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+6.3	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.5%rank 264	50.9%rank 277	50.2%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.9%rank 79	17.6%rank 321	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.9%rank 75	32.5%rank 266	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	29.8%rank 10	24.9%rank 117	25.7%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.6 expected (−0.6)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −7.3 points a game (they shot 39.4%, league 32.0%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.9 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +24.5
Last season's net rating: +37.1
Last season's minutes returning: 27%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +5.4
Change since preseason: −1.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 118.4 (rank 14)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 94.9 (rank 22)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.1 (rank 19)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +9.9 (rank 68)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Houston	1-0	0-0	+30.7	120.0	89.3	4
2	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+30.7	119.6	88.9	4
3	Iowa State	0-1	0-0	+27.2	119.9	92.7	9
4	Texas Tech	2-0	0-0	+24.7	115.4	90.8	11
5	Arizona	1-1	0-0	+23.4	118.4	94.9	16
6	Cincinnati	2-0	0-0	+23.2	114.6	91.4	17
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+20.8	120.1	99.2	25
8	TCU	1-0	0-0	+17.4	112.8	95.4	35
9	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.9	109.7	92.8	37
10	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.8	98.5	49
11	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+14.8	114.3	99.4	51
12	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+14.6	112.6	98.0	53
13	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+12.5	112.6	100.0	65
14	UCF	1-0	0-0	+10.9	114.3	103.4	73
15	Utah	2-0	0-0	+7.1	106.6	99.5	91
16	Kansas State	0-1	0-0	+3.4	104.9	101.5	113