Baylor Bears

Men's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs AR-Pine Bluff · Fri 6 Nov, 5 PM ET

AR-Pine Bluff0%100%Baylor

Projected 95-60 · Game page

Makes the tournament35%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.1

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 18-14

Net rating+16.4Rank 42 of 365 · offence 40, defence 45

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 18-14 (13 to 22 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 7.1
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field35%
Round of 3222%
Sweet 168%
Elite Eight3%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Northwestern Staterank 239	Home	98%	81-55	W 87-65	Right
Fri 6 Nov5 PM ET	vs Arkansas-Pine Bluffrank 357	Home	100%	95-60	—
Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET	vs Yalerank 106	Home	87%	83-69	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 35% · the next 7 days

Tue 10 Nov: vs YaleA win: 35% · a loss: 31%+4 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kayden MingoG · transfer from Penn State	1	28.0	17.0	7.0	2.0	+4.3	+3.2
Brett Decker Jr.G · transfer from Liberty	1	24.0	17.0	1.0	0.0	+3.5	+2.4
Dylan MingoG	1	23.0	14.0	6.0	6.0	+0.8	+1.2
Isaac CeliscarF · transfer from Yale	1	23.0	6.0	6.0	1.0	+5.7	+3.2
Isaac Williams IVG	1	23.0	8.0	2.0	4.0	+4.6	+2.8
Elijah WilliamsF	1	20.0	11.0	5.0	2.0	+0.9	+1.1
Evan ChatmanF · transfer from UAB	1	16.0	3.0	3.0	0.0	+4.0	+1.7
Caden PowellC	1	15.0	7.0	7.0	2.0	+5.2	+2.0
Juslin Bodo BodoC	1	15.0	0.0	3.0	0.0	+0.9	+0.8
Mayo SoyoyeC	1	8.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.5
Drew PerryG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.4	+0.2
James GoodisG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+3.2	+0.1
Andre Iguodala IIG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.4	+0.1
Maikcol PerezF	1	1.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+1.4	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.3%rank 226	49.8%rank 94	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.4%rank 320	18.5%rank 224	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.5%rank 84	30.6%rank 65	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.5%rank 263	26.1%rank 283	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +7.3 points a game (they shot 21.7%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +17.9
Last season's net rating: +16.3
Last season's minutes returning: 25%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +3.5
Change since preseason: −1.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 114.3 (rank 40)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 97.9 (rank 45)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.1 (rank 100)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −8.6 (rank 191)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+30.6	119.8	89.2	3
2	Houston	1-0	0-0	+30.6	120.0	89.5	4
3	Iowa State	0-1	0-0	+27.2	120.0	92.8	9
4	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+27.2	117.8	90.7	10
5	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+24.8	115.0	90.2	11
6	Arizona	0-1	0-0	+22.8	117.5	94.7	16
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+20.8	120.2	99.3	24
8	TCU	1-0	0-0	+17.3	112.8	95.5	35
9	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	109.7	92.9	38
10	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+16.4	114.3	97.9	42
11	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+15.4	112.5	97.1	45
12	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+14.8	114.3	99.5	52
13	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+12.4	112.6	100.2	63
14	UCF	1-0	0-0	+10.7	114.3	103.6	72
15	Utah	1-0	0-0	+7.3	108.0	100.7	92
16	Kansas State	0-1	0-0	+3.3	105.0	101.7	113