Northwestern State Demons
Next: at Mississippi St · Thu 5 Nov, 7:30 PM ETProjected 68-85 · Game page
Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.5
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-18
Net rating−8.6Rank 239 of 365 · offence 267, defence 188
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-18 (11 to 21 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-11
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 3%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.5
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field3%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Baylorrank 42 | Away | 2% | 55-81 | L 65-87 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov7:30 PM ET | at Mississippi Staterank 94 | Away | 8% | 68-85 | — | |
| Sat 7 Nov8 PM ET | at Murray Staterank 98 | Away | 8% | 67-83 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7:30 PM ET | vs Millsapsnot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at Mississippi StateA win: 3% · a loss: 3%0 pts
- Sat 7 Nov: at Murray StateA win: 3% · a loss: 4%−1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai SimpsonG | 1 | 29.0 | 17.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Antoine AlmuttarG | 1 | 28.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Isaiah VickF | 1 | 27.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Nathan OjukwuF | 1 | 24.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Arne OsojnikF · transfer from N Arizona | 1 | 22.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | −2.2 | −0.1 |
| Doyle BrownG | 1 | 19.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −1.4 | +0.2 |
| Jayden NesbittF | 1 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | −1.3 | +0.2 |
| Dionjahe ThomasF · transfer from Jackson St | 1 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.7 | −0.3 |
| Kordrick TurnerF | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Cam KellyF | 1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 |
| Armon AlmuttarG | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 |
| Boogii RemoG | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.8%rank 268 | 50.3%rank 135 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.5%rank 143 | 19.4%rank 44 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.6%rank 300 | 32.5%rank 280 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 26.1%rank 82 | 24.5%rank 104 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +1.1 points a game (they shot 31.0%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +4.0 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −10.2
- Last season's net rating
- −11.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 26%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.4
- Change since preseason
- +1.6
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 98.9 (rank 267)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 107.5 (rank 188)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.7 (rank 265)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +16.4 (rank 41)
Southland Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McNeese | 1-0 | 0-0 | +8.5 | 111.5 | 102.9 | 86 |
| 2 | Stephen F. Austin | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.2 | 102.2 | 105.5 | 160 |
| 3 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.6 | 101.8 | 107.4 | 193 |
| 4 | East Texas A&M | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.4 | 99.4 | 105.8 | 205 |
| 5 | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.0 | 99.1 | 107.1 | 232 |
| 6 | Nicholls | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.4 | 100.2 | 108.6 | 237 |
| 7 | Northwestern State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.6 | 98.9 | 107.5 | 239 |
| 8 | Lamar | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.3 | 97.6 | 108.9 | 276 |
| 9 | SE Louisiana | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.2 | 96.3 | 109.6 | 295 |
| 10 | Incarnate Word | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.8 | 97.1 | 110.9 | 300 |
| 11 | Houston Christian | 1-0 | 0-0 | −14.0 | 97.0 | 111.1 | 304 |
| 12 | LSU New Orleans | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.8 | 97.5 | 112.3 | 311 |