UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros

Men's · Southland Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Prairie View · Sat 7 Nov, 5:30 PM ET

Prairie View11%89%UT Rio Grande

Projected 82-67 · Game page

Makes the tournament10%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.1

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-15

Net rating−5.6Rank 193 of 365 · offence 200, defence 187

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-15 (13 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 8%
Wins the conference tournament: 9%
Average seed if in the field: 14.1
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field10%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Texas A&M-Kingsvillenot Division I	Home	—	—	W 81-51
Sat 7 Nov5:30 PM ET	vs Prairie View A&Mrank 346	Home	89%	82-67	—
Tue 10 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Texas Staterank 155	Home	55%	73-72	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 10% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs Prairie View A&MA win: 10% · a loss: 10%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs Texas StateA win: 10% · a loss: 9%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
B.B. KnightG · transfer from Lamar	1	26.0	14.0	3.0	0.0	−3.3	−0.6
Jace PoseyG · transfer from TCU	1	23.0	12.0	7.0	4.0	+1.9	+1.6
Caden BellG	1	22.0	14.0	2.0	1.0	−1.4	+0.2
Devon PryorG · transfer from Oregon	1	20.0	5.0	4.0	4.0	−0.6	+0.5
T'Johnn BrownG	1	19.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	−1.4	+0.2
Bobby Crawford Jr.F	1	19.0	8.0	7.0	1.0	−1.3	+0.2
Always WrightG	1	17.0	6.0	1.0	3.0	−1.4	+0.2
Chris UwayoG	1	17.0	8.0	3.0	1.0	−1.3	+0.2
Terrell WrightF	1	14.0	4.0	6.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.2
Josiah HillF	1	9.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	−1.1	+0.1
Kaleb CorbittF	1	5.0	3.0	3.0	0.0	−1.0	+0.1
Ian Parham Jr.G	1	4.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−1.0	+0.1
Jaeson BlairG	1	3.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	−0.9	+0.1
Luis RamirezG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.8	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.1%rank 148	50.1%rank 155	50.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 158	18.5%rank 136	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 132	31.7%rank 172	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.6%rank 135	25.6%rank 161	25.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −5.6
Last season's net rating: +4.2
Last season's minutes returning: 8%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.9
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 101.7 (rank 200)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 107.3 (rank 187)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.6 (rank 245)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Southland Conference by rating

12 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	McNeese	1-1	0-0	+5.6	110.8	105.1	101
2	Stephen F. Austin	1-0	0-0	−3.2	102.1	105.3	160
3	UT Rio Grande Valley	1-0	0-0	−5.6	101.7	107.3	193
4	East Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	−6.5	99.2	105.7	209
5	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	0-1	0-0	−8.1	98.9	107.0	232
6	Nicholls	1-0	0-0	−8.4	100.1	108.5	235
7	Lamar	1-0	0-0	−11.3	97.5	108.8	276
8	SE Louisiana	0-1	0-0	−13.3	96.1	109.5	296
9	Northwestern State	0-2	0-0	−14.0	95.7	109.6	300
10	Houston Christian	1-0	0-0	−14.0	96.9	111.0	304
11	LSU New Orleans	0-1	0-0	−14.9	97.3	112.3	314
12	Incarnate Word	0-2	0-0	−18.5	91.9	110.4	341