Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Next: vs Texas Lutheran · Fri 6 Nov, 7:30 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament12%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-12
Net rating−3.2Rank 160 of 365 · offence 189, defence 145
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-12 (14 to 26 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 14-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 9%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 12%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field12%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Lyonnot Division I | Home | — | — | W 120-61 | |
| Fri 6 Nov7:30 PM ET | vs Texas Lutherannot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov9 PM ET | at Abilene Christianrank 253 | Away | 52% | 73-72 | — |
Rooting guide
- Wed 11 Nov: at Abilene ChristianA win: 12% · a loss: 11%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton SimmonsG · transfer from TCU | 1 | 19.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | +0.7 |
| Gediminas AlisasF | 1 | 18.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 | +1.0 |
| Christian GreenG | 1 | 17.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −0.9 | +0.4 |
| Edwin DanielF · transfer from La Salle | 1 | 16.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −0.4 | +0.5 |
| Narit ChotikavanicG | 1 | 16.0 | 18.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | +1.5 | +1.0 |
| Erik MakkeG | 1 | 16.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −1.3 | +0.2 |
| MJ RussellG · transfer from UL Monroe | 1 | 15.0 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −2.5 | −0.1 |
| Kobi PearsonF · transfer from Texas A&M-CC | 1 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
| Manu MancielG | 1 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | −1.3 | +0.2 |
| Marcus ScurryG | 1 | 13.0 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −0.8 | +0.3 |
| Courterius ScottG | 1 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | −1.3 | +0.2 |
| Amari ReedF · transfer from UT Arlington | 1 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 |
| Kensington CandlerG | 1 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.1 |
| Easton HuppG · transfer from Charleston So | 1 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.6 | −0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.4%rank 135 | 50.4%rank 153 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.6%rank 155 | 18.6%rank 133 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 127 | 31.7%rank 162 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.2%rank 133 | 25.2%rank 152 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −3.2
- Last season's net rating
- +8.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 24%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −4.3
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 102.2 (rank 189)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 105.5 (rank 145)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.7 (rank 265)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Southland Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McNeese | 1-0 | 0-0 | +8.5 | 111.5 | 102.9 | 86 |
| 2 | Stephen F. Austin | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.2 | 102.2 | 105.5 | 160 |
| 3 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.6 | 101.8 | 107.4 | 193 |
| 4 | East Texas A&M | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.4 | 99.4 | 105.8 | 205 |
| 5 | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.0 | 99.1 | 107.1 | 232 |
| 6 | Nicholls | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.4 | 100.2 | 108.6 | 237 |
| 7 | Northwestern State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.6 | 98.9 | 107.5 | 239 |
| 8 | Lamar | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.3 | 97.6 | 108.9 | 276 |
| 9 | SE Louisiana | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.2 | 96.3 | 109.6 | 295 |
| 10 | Incarnate Word | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.8 | 97.1 | 110.9 | 300 |
| 11 | Houston Christian | 1-0 | 0-0 | −14.0 | 97.0 | 111.1 | 304 |
| 12 | LSU New Orleans | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.8 | 97.5 | 112.3 | 311 |