Abilene Christian Wildcats
Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-17
Net rating−9.6Rank 251 of 365 · offence 271, defence 224
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-17 (11 to 23 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 9%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 8%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field8%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Coloradorank 52 | Away | 5% | 58-79 | L 59-94 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET | vs Lamarrank 276 | Home | 66% | 74-69 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov9 PM ET | vs Stephen F. Austinrank 160 | Home | 46% | 72-73 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs LamarA win: 8% · a loss: 8%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs Stephen F. AustinA win: 8% · a loss: 8%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaniel RiveraG | 1 | 32.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −2.5 | −0.2 |
| Evan BoisdurG · transfer from Grand Canyon | 1 | 26.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −1.3 | +0.4 |
| Isaac DyeG | 1 | 26.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −3.2 | −0.5 |
| Timéo PonsG · transfer from New Mexico | 1 | 25.0 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | +0.1 | +1.0 |
| Willan Marie-AnaisF | 1 | 22.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Victor Yimga MoukouriF | 1 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Xabi LopezG | 1 | 18.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Drew HaffnerG | 1 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Armani TheusG | 1 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
| Stetson RowleyF | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.8 | 0.0 |
| Isaiah NeyhartG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.9 | −0.1 |
| J'Den ShieldsG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.6%rank 263 | 52.5%rank 343 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.2%rank 115 | 18.4%rank 213 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.6%rank 292 | 32.1%rank 259 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.0%rank 243 | 24.8%rank 114 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −11.8 points a game (they shot 52.6%, league 31.9%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.2 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −7.8
- Last season's net rating
- −7.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 22%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.4
- Change since preseason
- −1.8
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 98.8 (rank 271)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 108.4 (rank 224)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.4 (rank 145)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +14.8 (rank 43)
United Athletic Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Arkansas | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.4 | 103.5 | 105.9 | 149 |
| 2 | UT Arlington | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.0 | 100.9 | 106.9 | 198 |
| 3 | Austin Peay | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.1 | 100.8 | 107.9 | 218 |
| 4 | Tarleton State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.5 | 98.3 | 107.8 | 249 |
| 5 | Abilene Christian | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.6 | 98.8 | 108.4 | 251 |
| 6 | Little Rock | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.8 | 98.8 | 109.7 | 267 |
| 7 | Eastern Kentucky | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.9 | 100.6 | 111.5 | 270 |
| 8 | North Alabama | 2-0 | 0-0 | −11.6 | 98.1 | 109.8 | 279 |
| 9 | West Georgia | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.4 | 94.9 | 110.2 | 319 |