Eastern Kentucky Colonels

Men's · United Athletic Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Midway · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.

Makes the tournament7%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-18

Net rating−10.9Rank 271 of 365 · offence 229, defence 311

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-18 (10 to 22 wins)
Projected conference record: 7-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 7%
Wins the conference tournament: 7%
Average seed if in the field: 14.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field7%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Kentucky Christiannot Division I	Home	—	—	W 105-54
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs Midwaynot Division I	Home	—	—	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	at Georgia Techrank 89	Away	6%	66-86	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 7% · the next 7 days

Tue 10 Nov: at Georgia TechA win: 2% · a loss: 7%−4 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Josh LoweF	1	25.0	9.0	9.0	1.0	−2.1	0.0
Omer HamamaG · transfer from Kent State	1	21.0	6.0	2.0	3.0	−2.5	−0.2
Yvens PaulF	1	19.0	10.0	10.0	0.0	−3.3	−0.4
Justin McCarterG	1	19.0	12.0	7.0	2.0	−1.9	+0.1
Austin BallF	1	16.0	6.0	4.0	4.0	−2.5	−0.1
Jackson HoltG	1	15.0	8.0	1.0	0.0	−2.8	−0.2
Damone KingG · transfer from Rhode Island	1	15.0	14.0	1.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.2
Drae VasserG	1	15.0	10.0	3.0	3.0	−1.9	+0.1
Shadrak LasuF · transfer from Long Island	1	13.0	6.0	7.0	0.0	−1.7	+0.1
Amari OwensG	1	13.0	10.0	0.0	4.0	−1.8	+0.1
Cade MurphyG	1	12.0	3.0	3.0	1.0	−1.8	+0.1
Duje DujmovicF	1	8.0	6.0	2.0	1.0	−1.7	+0.1
Bobby HardisonG	1	5.0	2.0	1.0	2.0	−1.6	0.0
Mason MilesG	1	4.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	−4.1	−0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 153	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.6%rank 155	18.6%rank 133	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 127	31.7%rank 162	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.2%rank 133	25.2%rank 152	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −10.9
Last season's net rating: −11.4
Last season's minutes returning: 28%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.3
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 100.7 (rank 229)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 111.6 (rank 311)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.5 (rank 170)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

United Athletic Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Central Arkansas	1-0	0-0	−2.5	103.6	106.1	150
2	UT Arlington	1-0	0-0	−6.0	101.0	107.0	197
3	Austin Peay	1-0	0-0	−7.1	100.9	108.0	217
4	Tarleton State	1-0	0-0	−9.5	98.4	107.9	251
5	Abilene Christian	0-1	0-0	−9.5	98.9	108.5	253
6	Little Rock	0-1	0-0	−10.7	99.0	109.7	266
7	Eastern Kentucky	1-0	0-0	−10.9	100.7	111.6	271
8	North Alabama	1-0	0-0	−11.5	98.3	109.8	278
9	West Georgia	0-1	0-0	−15.3	95.0	110.3	319