Central Arkansas Bears
Makes the tournament30%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.7
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 22-12
Net rating−2.5Rank 150 of 365 · offence 163, defence 160
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 22-12 (17 to 27 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-5
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 45%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 30%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.7
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field30%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Oral Robertsrank 311 | Home | 76% | 73-64 | W 85-55 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov8:30 PM ET | at Ole Missrank 32 | Away | 3% | 64-86 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7:30 PM ET | vs Ecclesianot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at Ole MissA win: 28% · a loss: 30%−3 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke MooreG | 1 | 30.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | −0.6 | +0.8 |
| Ty RobinsonG | 1 | 25.0 | 29.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +2.6 | +2.1 |
| Harry BeauchampG | 1 | 25.0 | 15.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | −0.1 |
| Cole McCormickG | 1 | 23.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −0.4 | +0.7 |
| Simm-Marten SaadiF · transfer from Wyoming | 1 | 22.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | −1.1 | +0.4 |
| Tucker AndersonF · transfer from Utah State | 1 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.4 | +1.0 |
| Rylie MarshallG | 1 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.5 | +0.1 |
| R.J. YoungG | 1 | 15.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −1.5 | +0.1 |
| Malchiah MarableF | 1 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −1.1 | +0.2 |
| Andrew HoernerF | 1 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.3 | +0.1 |
| Camarion BeadG | 1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.2 | +0.1 |
| R.J. NewtonG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | 0.0 |
| Isaiah TempletonG | 1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | 0.0 |
| Owen DehrmannG | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.9 | 0.0 |
| J.C. ShulmanG | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.4%rank 132 | 48.6%rank 30 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.7%rank 243 | 19.2%rank 52 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.4%rank 236 | 33.8%rank 338 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 24.7%rank 246 | 25.1%rank 148 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +16.9 points a game (they shot 16.7%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +2.2 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −5.5
- Last season's net rating
- +0.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 57%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +1.3
- Change since preseason
- +2.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 103.6 (rank 163)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 106.2 (rank 160)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.6 (rank 142)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −14.6 (rank 247)
United Athletic Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Arkansas | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.5 | 103.6 | 106.2 | 150 |
| 2 | UT Arlington | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.0 | 101.0 | 107.1 | 198 |
| 3 | Austin Peay | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.1 | 101.0 | 108.0 | 217 |
| 4 | Abilene Christian | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.5 | 99.0 | 108.5 | 252 |
| 5 | Tarleton State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.5 | 98.5 | 108.0 | 253 |
| 6 | Little Rock | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 99.0 | 109.8 | 265 |
| 7 | Eastern Kentucky | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.9 | 100.8 | 111.7 | 271 |
| 8 | North Alabama | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.5 | 98.4 | 109.8 | 278 |
| 9 | West Georgia | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 95.1 | 110.3 | 318 |