UT Arlington Mavericks
Makes the tournament18%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.3
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 21-14
Net rating−6.0Rank 198 of 365 · offence 216, defence 175
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 21-14 (14 to 27 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-6
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 23%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 18%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.3
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field18%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: vs PortlandA win: 18% · a loss: 18%0 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: at Hawai'iA win: 18% · a loss: 18%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah ShelbyG · transfer from Texas A&M | 1 | 35.0 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +1.3 |
| Mier PanoamG · transfer from Xavier | 1 | 28.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| Jerimiyah SmithG | 1 | 24.0 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Niko BundaloF · transfer from Ole Miss | 1 | 23.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | −0.5 | +0.6 |
| Tycen McDanielsF · transfer from Alcorn St | 1 | 23.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | −1.4 | +0.3 |
| Miles GoodmanF | 1 | 22.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Tristan HankinsG | 1 | 20.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Teodor SimicF | 1 | 18.0 | 16.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Jayden ParkerG | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.1 |
| Josh MontgomeryG | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −1.1 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.1%rank 148 | 50.1%rank 155 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.5%rank 158 | 18.5%rank 136 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 132 | 31.7%rank 172 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.6%rank 135 | 25.6%rank 161 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −6.0
- Last season's net rating
- 0.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 6%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.9
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 100.9 (rank 216)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 106.9 (rank 175)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.2 (rank 290)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
United Athletic Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Arkansas | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.4 | 103.5 | 105.9 | 149 |
| 2 | UT Arlington | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.0 | 100.9 | 106.9 | 198 |
| 3 | Austin Peay | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.1 | 100.8 | 107.9 | 218 |
| 4 | Tarleton State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.5 | 98.3 | 107.8 | 249 |
| 5 | Abilene Christian | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.6 | 98.8 | 108.4 | 251 |
| 6 | Little Rock | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.8 | 98.8 | 109.7 | 267 |
| 7 | Eastern Kentucky | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.9 | 100.6 | 111.5 | 270 |
| 8 | North Alabama | 2-0 | 0-0 | −11.6 | 98.1 | 109.8 | 279 |
| 9 | West Georgia | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.4 | 94.9 | 110.2 | 319 |