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Updated Thu 5 Nov, 9:50 PM ET

Scores, schedules and lines from ESPN; past seasons from sportsdataverse. Not affiliated with any team, league or bookmaker.

UT Arlington Mavericks

Men's · United Athletic Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Makes the tournament18%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.3
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 21-14
Net rating−6.0Rank 198 of 365 · offence 216, defence 175

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons
Projected record
21-14 (14 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record
10-6
Wins or shares the conference title
23%
Wins the conference tournament
18%
Average seed if in the field
14.3
A 1 seed
0%
  1. Makes the field18%
  2. Round of 32<1%
  3. Sweet 16<1%
  4. Elite Eight0%
  5. Final Four0%
  6. Title game0%
  7. Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game
DateOpponentWhereWin chanceProjectedResultPick
Mon 2 Novvs UNT Dallasnot Division IHome——W 89-56
Fri 6 Nov10:30 PM ETvs Portlandrank 234Neutral55%74-72—
Sun 8 Nov11 PM ETat Hawai'irank 148Away29%69-77—
Mon 9 Nov10:30 PM ETvs Bethesdanot Division INeutral———

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 18% · the next 7 days
  1. Fri 6 Nov: vs PortlandA win: 18% · a loss: 18%0 pts
  2. Sun 8 Nov: at Hawai'iA win: 18% · a loss: 18%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement
PlayerGamesMinutesPointsReboundsAssistsRatingValue
Noah ShelbyG · transfer from Texas A&M135.017.05.03.00.0+1.3
Mier PanoamG · transfer from Xavier128.08.010.05.0−1.7+0.2
Jerimiyah SmithG124.013.010.06.0−1.6+0.2
Niko BundaloF · transfer from Ole Miss123.013.012.00.0−0.5+0.6
Tycen McDanielsF · transfer from Alcorn St123.03.08.02.0−1.4+0.3
Miles GoodmanF122.012.03.03.0−2.10.0
Tristan HankinsG120.07.00.04.0−1.6+0.2
Teodor SimicF118.016.09.01.0−1.5+0.2
Jayden ParkerG15.00.00.00.0−1.2+0.1
Josh MontgomeryG11.00.00.01.0−1.10.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

OffenceDefenceLeague
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin50.1%rank 14850.1%rank 15550.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin18.5%rank 15818.5%rank 13618.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin31.7%rank 13231.7%rank 17231.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin25.6%rank 13525.6%rank 16125.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team
−8−6−4−20+21 NovNow−6.0−8−6−4−20+21 NovNow−6.0
Preseason net rating
−6.0
Last season's net rating
0.0
Last season's minutes returning
6%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes
−2.9
Change since preseason
0.0
Offence, points per 100 possessions
100.9 (rank 216)
Defence, points allowed per 100
106.9 (rank 175)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
70.2 (rank 290)
Schedule so far, opponents' average
—

United Athletic Conference by rating

9 teams
#TeamRecordConferenceNetOffenceDefenceNational rank
1Central Arkansas1-00-0−2.4103.5105.9149
2UT Arlington1-00-0−6.0100.9106.9198
3Austin Peay1-00-0−7.1100.8107.9218
4Tarleton State1-00-0−9.598.3107.8249
5Abilene Christian0-10-0−9.698.8108.4251
6Little Rock0-10-0−10.898.8109.7267
7Eastern Kentucky1-00-0−10.9100.6111.5270
8North Alabama2-00-0−11.698.1109.8279
9West Georgia0-10-0−15.494.9110.2319