Portland Pilots

Men's · West Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs UT Arlington · Fri 6 Nov, 10:30 PM ET

UT Arlington55%45%Portland

Projected 73-74 · Game page

Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-21

Net rating−8.2Rank 236 of 365 · offence 234, defence 237

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 13-21 (7 to 18 wins)
Projected conference record: 5-11
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field<1%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Willamettenot Division I	Home	—	—	W 133-89
Fri 6 Nov10:30 PM ET	vs UT Arlingtonrank 197	Neutral	45%	73-74	—
Sun 8 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Bethesdanot Division I	Neutral	—	—	—
Mon 9 Nov11:59 PM ET	at Hawai'irank 148	Away	23%	71-80	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs UT ArlingtonA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Mon 9 Nov: at Hawai'iA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Hunter AdamG · transfer from Davidson	1	24.0	10.0	5.0	3.0	+0.2	+1.0
Jaxon OlveraG · transfer from Louisiana	1	19.0	5.0	4.0	6.0	−2.4	−0.1
RJ Nance Jr.G	1	19.0	15.0	5.0	4.0	−2.0	0.0
Dante Censori-HerculesG	1	19.0	7.0	6.0	0.0	−2.3	−0.1
James O'DonnellF	1	17.0	18.0	10.0	3.0	−0.5	+0.5
Kaia IsaacG · transfer from Tarleton St	1	17.0	5.0	3.0	5.0	−2.4	−0.1
Riley ParkerG	1	16.0	12.0	4.0	5.0	−3.1	−0.3
Vito PerkovicF · transfer from East Carolina	1	13.0	9.0	3.0	0.0	−3.2	−0.3
Timo GeorgeF	1	13.0	19.0	6.0	2.0	+1.1	+0.7
Henry SewellF	1	13.0	13.0	0.0	0.0	−1.9	+0.1
Carlin BriggsG	1	11.0	9.0	4.0	3.0	−1.8	+0.1
Austin FoxwellG	1	8.0	3.0	1.0	4.0	−1.8	0.0
Dylan MoranG	1	8.0	5.0	2.0	0.0	−1.8	0.0
Marchelo MoreiraG	1	3.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	−1.6	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 153	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.6%rank 155	18.6%rank 133	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 127	31.7%rank 162	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.2%rank 133	25.2%rank 152	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −8.2
Last season's net rating: −5.2
Last season's minutes returning: 26%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.5
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 100.7 (rank 234)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 108.8 (rank 237)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.9 (rank 116)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

West Coast Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Saint Mary's	2-0	0-0	+14.2	114.2	100.0	55
2	Santa Clara	2-0	0-0	+12.4	113.2	100.8	64
3	San Francisco	1-0	0-0	+2.5	105.6	103.1	117
4	Seattle U	0-1	0-0	+2.5	102.7	100.2	118
5	Pepperdine	0-1	0-0	−3.1	103.6	106.7	158
6	Loyola Marymount	0-1	0-0	−4.5	104.0	108.6	180
7	Pacific	1-0	0-0	−5.4	101.7	107.1	189
8	Denver	0-1	0-0	−6.9	102.6	109.5	214
9	San Diego	1-0	0-0	−7.2	101.3	108.5	219
10	Portland	1-0	0-0	−8.2	100.7	108.8	236