San Francisco Dons

Men's · West Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs N Dakota St · Fri 6 Nov, 10 PM ET

N Dakota St18%82%San Francisco

Projected 80-69 · Game page

Makes the tournament9%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 21-13

Net rating+2.5Rank 117 of 365 · offence 127, defence 110

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 21-13 (16 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 5%
Wins the conference tournament: 7%
Average seed if in the field: 11.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field9%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Radfordrank 222	Home	82%	75-63	W 76-62	Right
Fri 6 Nov10 PM ET	vs North Dakota Staterank 195	Home	82%	80-69	—
Tue 10 Nov10 PM ET	vs Montanarank 184	Home	80%	80-70	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 9% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs North Dakota StateA win: 9% · a loss: 9%−1 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs MontanaA win: 9% · a loss: 8%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Gustav KnudsenF	1	37.0	13.0	6.0	2.0	−0.5	+1.0
Dylan BordonG	1	36.0	20.0	3.0	7.0	−0.5	+1.0
Ben OosterbaanF · transfer from St Thomas	1	32.0	10.0	4.0	1.0	+1.5	+2.0
Ismaila DiagneC · transfer from Gonzaga	1	28.0	16.0	11.0	1.0	+3.5	+2.8
Yoav VitlemG	1	22.0	5.0	3.0	2.0	−0.2	+0.7
Aidan BracciaG	1	12.0	6.0	1.0	0.0	−0.5	+0.3
Ndewedo NewburyF	1	11.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	+0.4
Andrew HilmanG	1	11.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.4
Jaylen Hunter-ColemanG	1	7.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+0.2	+0.3
Jaroslavs PihtovsF	1	5.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	+0.2	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.0%rank 320	51.2%rank 285	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.0%rank 72	19.8%rank 22	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	33.0%rank 62	31.3%rank 120	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	27.0%rank 51	25.5%rank 248	25.3%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −0.7 points a game (they shot 33.3%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +0.4
Last season's net rating: +3.8
Last season's minutes returning: 1%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.5
Change since preseason: +2.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 105.7 (rank 127)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 103.2 (rank 110)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.6 (rank 272)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −7.3 (rank 185)

West Coast Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Saint Mary's	2-0	0-0	+14.2	114.3	100.0	55
2	Santa Clara	2-0	0-0	+12.4	113.2	100.9	64
3	San Francisco	1-0	0-0	+2.5	105.7	103.2	117
4	Seattle U	0-1	0-0	+2.5	102.8	100.3	118
5	Pepperdine	0-1	0-0	−3.1	103.7	106.7	158
6	Loyola Marymount	0-1	0-0	−4.5	104.1	108.6	180
7	Pacific	1-0	0-0	−5.4	101.8	107.2	189
8	Denver	0-1	0-0	−6.9	102.7	109.6	215
9	San Diego	1-0	0-0	−7.2	101.4	108.6	220
10	Portland	1-0	0-0	−8.2	100.7	108.9	236