Santa Clara Broncos

Men's · West Coast Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: vs Sacramento St · Sat 7 Nov, 10 PM ET

Sacramento St3%97%Santa Clara

Projected 91-68 · Game page

Makes the tournament57%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.7

Wins the national title<1%Final Four <1% · projected 27-8

Net rating+12.3Rank 64 of 365 · offence 48, defence 86

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 27-8 (21 to 31 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-3
Wins or shares the conference title: 47%
Wins the conference tournament: 36%
Average seed if in the field: 9.7
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field57%
Round of 3219%
Sweet 164%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Towsonrank 150	Home	91%	76-59	W 89-70	Right
Wed 4 Nov	vs Milwaukeerank 218	Home	96%	87-67	W 95-72	Right
Sat 7 Nov10 PM ET	vs Sacramento Staterank 258	Home	97%	91-68	—
Wed 11 Nov8 PM ET	at North Texasrank 98	Away	52%	76-75	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 57% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs Sacramento StateA win: 57% · a loss: 56%+1 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at North TexasA win: 60% · a loss: 53%+8 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jake EnsmingerG	2	26.5	9.0	6.0	4.0	+3.6	+2.7
Sash GavalyugovG	2	26.0	12.5	1.5	5.0	+2.9	+2.3
Brad Longcor IIIG	2	24.0	14.5	3.0	4.0	0.0	+0.9
David CastilloG · transfer from Kansas St	2	22.0	13.5	1.5	1.5	+1.1	+1.2
Elijah MahiF	2	22.0	8.5	5.5	3.5	+5.3	+3.0
Fedor ZugicG · transfer from Creighton	2	18.0	9.0	3.0	1.0	+2.0	+1.3
Chris TadjoF	2	18.0	8.5	8.5	1.0	+0.2	+0.7
Thierry DarlanG	2	16.0	2.5	3.5	3.0	+3.3	+1.6
Francis ChukwudebeluC	2	12.5	5.0	1.5	1.0	+2.9	+1.1
Sidi GueyeC · transfer from Arizona	2	8.0	5.0	1.5	0.0	+5.9	+1.2
Noah BadibangaF	2	2.0	1.0	0.0	0.5	+0.9	+0.1
Alex EnsorC	2	2.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	+0.9	+0.1
Eli JolinG	2	1.5	1.0	0.0	0.0	+0.9	+0.1
Brayde KuykendallG	2	1.5	1.0	0.0	0.5	+0.9	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	49.6%rank 84	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.4%rank 140	18.5%rank 217	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.0%rank 271	34.5%rank 354	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.5%rank 257	26.7%rank 306	25.1%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 1.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +3.7 points a game (they shot 27.5%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +13.2
Last season's net rating: +19.4
Last season's minutes returning: 55%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.9
Change since preseason: −0.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 113.2 (rank 48)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 100.9 (rank 86)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.6 (rank 45)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −4.8 (rank 158)

West Coast Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Saint Mary's	2-0	0-0	+14.2	114.2	100.0	55
2	Santa Clara	2-0	0-0	+12.3	113.2	100.9	64
3	San Francisco	1-0	0-0	+2.5	105.7	103.2	117
4	Seattle U	0-1	0-0	+2.5	102.7	100.2	118
5	Pepperdine	0-1	0-0	−3.0	103.6	106.7	158
6	Loyola Marymount	0-1	0-0	−4.5	104.1	108.6	181
7	Pacific	1-0	0-0	−5.4	101.7	107.1	190
8	Denver	0-1	0-0	−6.9	102.7	109.5	214
9	San Diego	1-0	0-0	−7.2	101.4	108.5	219
10	Portland	1-0	0-0	−8.2	100.7	108.8	236