Seattle U Redhawks

Men's · West Coast Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Portland St · Sat 7 Nov, 10 PM ET

Portland St18%82%Seattle U

Projected 77-66 · Game page

Makes the tournament7%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.5

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-13

Net rating+2.5Rank 118 of 365 · offence 180, defence 72

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-13 (14 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 5%
Wins the conference tournament: 6%
Average seed if in the field: 12.5
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field7%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Hawai'irank 148	Away	52%	67-67	L 73-74	Wrong
Sat 7 Nov10 PM ET	vs Portland Staterank 196	Home	82%	77-66	—
Wed 11 Nov10 PM ET	vs UTSArank 314	Home	94%	83-65	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 7% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs Portland StateA win: 7% · a loss: 7%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs UTSAA win: 7% · a loss: 7%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Will HeimbrodtF	1	34.0	20.0	4.0	3.0	+2.6	+2.8
Mason WilliamsG	1	32.0	20.0	3.0	2.0	−1.2	+0.5
Halvine DzellatC · transfer from Cincinnati	1	28.0	10.0	10.0	0.0	+1.5	+1.8
Tyler BostonG · transfer from Holy Cross	1	27.0	8.0	3.0	6.0	−0.9	+0.6
Junseok YeoF	1	25.0	6.0	0.0	0.0	+0.6	+1.2
Maleek AringtonG	1	19.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	+1.1	+1.1
Ray AdamsF	1	16.0	3.0	4.0	0.0	+0.6	+0.8
Ladji CoulibalyC	1	9.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.7	+0.2
Amare LaraneG	1	6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.6	+0.2
Jaden BailesG	1	4.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	−0.5	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	52.1%rank 35	50.6%rank 246	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.6%rank 335	19.6%rank 34	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.4%rank 232	29.3%rank 8	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.3%rank 128	25.6%rank 256	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.5 expected (−0.5)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −2.7 points a game (they shot 36.4%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 0-1

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +3.1
Last season's net rating: +5.1
Last season's minutes returning: 46%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.8
Change since preseason: −0.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 102.7 (rank 180)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 100.2 (rank 72)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.7 (rank 139)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −2.2 (rank 127)

West Coast Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Saint Mary's	2-0	0-0	+14.2	114.2	100.0	55
2	Santa Clara	2-0	0-0	+12.3	113.2	100.8	64
3	San Francisco	1-0	0-0	+2.5	105.7	103.2	117
4	Seattle U	0-1	0-0	+2.5	102.7	100.2	118
5	Pepperdine	0-1	0-0	−3.0	103.6	106.7	158
6	Loyola Marymount	0-1	0-0	−4.5	104.0	108.6	181
7	Pacific	1-0	0-0	−5.4	101.7	107.1	189
8	Denver	0-1	0-0	−6.9	102.7	109.5	214
9	San Diego	1-0	0-0	−7.2	101.3	108.5	219
10	Portland	1-0	0-0	−8.2	100.7	108.8	236