Portland State Vikings

Men's · Big Sky Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Seattle U · Sat 7 Nov, 10 PM ET

Portland St18%82%Seattle U

Projected 66-77 · Game page

Makes the tournament9%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.9

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-17

Net rating−5.8Rank 196 of 365 · offence 244, defence 159

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-17 (11 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 9%
Wins the conference tournament: 9%
Average seed if in the field: 13.9
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field9%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Tue 3 Nov	vs Lewis & Clarknot Division I	Home	—	—	W 111-59
Sat 7 Nov10 PM ET	at Seattle Urank 118	Away	18%	66-77	—
Wed 11 Nov9 PM ET	at Colorado Staterank 69	Away	8%	65-83	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 9% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at Seattle UA win: 9% · a loss: 9%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at Colorado StateA win: 11% · a loss: 9%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Luke KearneyF · transfer from Utah State	1	21.0	17.0	3.0	1.0	+0.7	+1.1
Gantas KrianauskasG	1	21.0	6.0	4.0	8.0	−1.6	+0.2
Emil SkyttG · transfer from N Dakota St	1	19.0	7.0	7.0	4.0	−1.0	+0.3
Yaroslav NikonovG	1	19.0	14.0	5.0	5.0	−1.6	+0.2
Nehemiah PollardG	1	18.0	10.0	5.0	0.0	−1.6	+0.2
Trevor FrankG	1	18.0	13.0	3.0	2.0	−1.6	+0.2
KC IbekweC · transfer from Pacific	1	17.0	17.0	8.0	0.0	−0.3	+0.5
Antonio PusateriF	1	17.0	10.0	7.0	2.0	−1.5	+0.2
Dennis Johnson IIIG	1	14.0	4.0	4.0	1.0	−1.5	+0.1
Charles ChukwuF	1	13.0	0.0	5.0	0.0	−1.5	+0.1
Alexandros SklirosF	1	10.0	6.0	4.0	1.0	−1.4	+0.1
Colt NessG	1	7.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−2.5	−0.1
Francesco CoratoF	1	6.0	5.0	4.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 156	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 155	18.5%rank 133	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.8%rank 128	31.8%rank 162	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.1%rank 133	25.1%rank 154	25.1%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −5.8
Last season's net rating: +1.7
Last season's minutes returning: 4%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.8
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 100.3 (rank 244)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 106.1 (rank 159)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.6 (rank 142)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Big Sky Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Montana State	0-1	0-0	+1.8	106.0	104.2	120
2	Northern Colorado	1-0	0-0	−2.9	104.2	107.1	155
3	Eastern Washington	0-1	0-0	−4.2	104.5	108.7	173
4	Montana	1-1	0-0	−4.9	103.2	108.1	183
5	Portland State	1-0	0-0	−5.8	100.3	106.1	196
6	Idaho	1-0	0-0	−6.5	101.8	108.3	208
7	Southern Utah	1-0	0-0	−7.5	101.2	108.6	224
8	Northern Arizona	0-1	0-0	−10.6	101.8	112.4	260
9	Idaho State	0-1	0-0	−10.6	100.7	111.3	263
10	Weber State	0-1	0-0	−12.0	99.3	111.3	281
11	Utah Tech	1-1	0-0	−12.5	98.9	111.4	284