Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Men's · Big Sky Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Grace University · Thu 5 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.

Makes the tournament6%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-18

Net rating−7.5Rank 223 of 365 · offence 214, defence 231

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 15-18 (9 to 21 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 6%
Wins the conference tournament: 6%
Average seed if in the field: 14.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field6%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs West Coast Baptistnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 134-69
Thu 5 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs Grace Universitynot Division I	Home	—	—	Live
Sat 7 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs Bethesdanot Division I	Home	—	—	—
Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET	at High Pointrank 87	Away	9%	67-84	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 6% · the next 7 days

Thu 12 Nov: at High PointA win: 6% · a loss: 6%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Rashaad DavisG	1	18.0	7.0	3.0	6.0	−1.6	+0.1
Brayden JohnsonG	1	17.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−3.6	−0.5
DJ SmithF	1	17.0	13.0	8.0	1.0	−1.5	+0.2
Zeplin KiddG	1	15.0	0.0	4.0	0.0	−3.2	−0.3
Chase DegraffenriedG	1	15.0	7.0	6.0	3.0	−1.5	+0.1
Anthony BrelandG	1	14.0	12.0	5.0	4.0	−1.5	+0.1
Jaiden FeroahF	1	14.0	4.0	5.0	2.0	+1.2	+0.8
Dezhon HallG	1	13.0	11.0	3.0	2.0	−1.5	+0.1
Jalik NichollsF	1	13.0	8.0	1.0	2.0	−1.5	+0.1
JaJuan NichollsF · transfer from Tennessee Tech	1	12.0	14.0	5.0	1.0	+2.1	+0.9
Juok RiakF	1	12.0	10.0	3.0	3.0	−1.4	+0.1
Jordan BrownG	1	11.0	10.0	4.0	2.0	−1.4	+0.1
Cale BarclayF	1	10.0	13.0	2.0	3.0	−3.4	−0.2
Dylan SandersG	1	10.0	11.0	1.0	0.0	−1.4	+0.1
Mikhail ProtsenkoC	1	9.0	14.0	1.0	0.0	−1.4	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.1%rank 148	50.1%rank 155	50.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 158	18.5%rank 136	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 132	31.7%rank 172	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.6%rank 135	25.6%rank 161	25.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −7.4
Last season's net rating: −9.2
Last season's minutes returning: 24%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.2
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 101.0 (rank 214)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 108.5 (rank 231)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.4 (rank 50)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Big Sky Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Montana State	0-1	0-0	+1.7	105.8	104.1	120
2	Northern Colorado	1-0	0-0	−2.9	104.0	107.0	156
3	Eastern Washington	0-1	0-0	−4.3	104.3	108.6	175
4	Montana	1-1	0-0	−5.1	103.0	108.0	185
5	Portland State	1-0	0-0	−5.8	100.1	106.0	196
6	Idaho	1-0	0-0	−6.5	101.7	108.2	211
7	Southern Utah	1-0	0-0	−7.5	101.0	108.5	223
8	Northern Arizona	0-1	0-0	−10.7	101.6	112.3	260
9	Idaho State	0-1	0-0	−10.8	100.5	111.2	265
10	Weber State	0-1	0-0	−12.1	99.0	111.2	282
11	Utah Tech	1-1	0-0	−12.6	98.7	111.3	284