Northern Colorado Bears
Next: at Arizona St · Fri 6 Nov, 9 PM ETProjected 69-86 · Game page
Makes the tournament15%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.5
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-13
Net rating−2.9Rank 155 of 365 · offence 152, defence 179
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-13 (14 to 25 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 20%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 15%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.5
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field15%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Colorado Collegenot Division I | Home | — | — | W 117-64 | |
| Fri 6 Nov9 PM ET | at Arizona Staterank 63 | Away | 9% | 69-86 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET | vs Northern New Mexiconot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at Arizona StateA win: 15% · a loss: 15%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Langston ReynoldsG · transfer from Minnesota | 1 | 25.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | +2.1 | +1.9 |
| Andrew CrawfordF · transfer from Colorado | 1 | 19.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | +0.1 | +0.8 |
| Hunter CaldwellC | 1 | 18.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −0.8 | +0.4 |
| Steven Ramirez Jr.G | 1 | 18.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
| Vincent DelanoG | 1 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | −1.4 | +0.2 |
| Jeremiah HammondG | 1 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.3 |
| Kaidon RayfieldF · transfer from UTSA | 1 | 15.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Chiante' TrambleG · transfer from Southern Miss | 1 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Manning ShareefF | 1 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −0.9 | +0.3 |
| Campbell BloggG | 1 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | −0.8 | +0.3 |
| Ariik MawienG | 1 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | +0.3 |
| Drew PaineF | 1 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −0.8 | +0.2 |
| Tanner BraketaG | 1 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | −0.9 | +0.2 |
| Will GordonG | 1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.4%rank 135 | 50.4%rank 155 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.6%rank 156 | 18.6%rank 134 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 128 | 31.7%rank 162 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.2%rank 131 | 25.2%rank 153 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −2.9
- Last season's net rating
- +1.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 25%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.3
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 104.2 (rank 152)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 107.1 (rank 179)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.1 (rank 97)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Big Sky Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.8 | 106.0 | 104.2 | 120 |
| 2 | Northern Colorado | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.9 | 104.2 | 107.1 | 155 |
| 3 | Eastern Washington | 0-1 | 0-0 | −4.2 | 104.5 | 108.7 | 173 |
| 4 | Montana | 1-1 | 0-0 | −4.9 | 103.2 | 108.1 | 183 |
| 5 | Portland State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.8 | 100.3 | 106.1 | 196 |
| 6 | Idaho | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.5 | 101.8 | 108.3 | 208 |
| 7 | Southern Utah | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.5 | 101.2 | 108.6 | 224 |
| 8 | Northern Arizona | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 101.8 | 112.4 | 260 |
| 9 | Idaho State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 100.7 | 111.3 | 263 |
| 10 | Weber State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.0 | 99.3 | 111.3 | 281 |
| 11 | Utah Tech | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.5 | 98.9 | 111.4 | 284 |