Montana State Bobcats
Next: vs Long Beach St · Sat 7 Nov, 3 PM ETProjected 80-67 · Game page
Makes the tournament33%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.3
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 23-11
Net rating+1.8Rank 120 of 365 · offence 119, defence 121
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 23-11 (18 to 28 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 15-5
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 50%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 32%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.3
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field33%
- Round of 322%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Colorado Staterank 69 | Away | 19% | 62-73 | L 74-84 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov3 PM ET | vs Long Beach Staterank 245 | Home | 86% | 80-67 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov9 PM ET | at BYUrank 24 | Away | 5% | 69-89 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs Long Beach StateA win: 33% · a loss: 33%0 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: at BYUA win: 32% · a loss: 33%−1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah DavisG | 1 | 31.0 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | +1.8 | +2.1 |
| Cavin HoldenG | 1 | 31.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | −0.4 | +0.9 |
| Howie KeeneG | 1 | 27.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −0.7 | +0.6 |
| Christian KingF | 1 | 27.0 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | +1.6 | +1.8 |
| Jaden SteppeF | 1 | 23.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +0.3 | +1.0 |
| Darnez SlaterG · transfer from Colorado St | 1 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.3 | +0.6 |
| Isaiah CraneG | 1 | 19.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −0.5 | +0.5 |
| Seth AmunrudG | 1 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +1.2 | +0.9 |
| Hale HansenF | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −0.2 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.2%rank 80 | 51.1%rank 281 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 17.5%rank 27 | 19.6%rank 32 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.3%rank 320 | 30.6%rank 63 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 24.8%rank 242 | 26.2%rank 288 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −2.6 points a game (they shot 36.8%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −3.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +1.7
- Last season's net rating
- +3.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 67%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.2
- Change since preseason
- +0.2
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 106.0 (rank 119)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 104.2 (rank 121)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.2 (rank 208)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +11.0 (rank 69)
Big Sky Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.8 | 106.0 | 104.2 | 120 |
| 2 | Northern Colorado | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.9 | 104.2 | 107.1 | 155 |
| 3 | Eastern Washington | 0-1 | 0-0 | −4.2 | 104.5 | 108.7 | 174 |
| 4 | Montana | 1-1 | 0-0 | −5.0 | 103.2 | 108.1 | 184 |
| 5 | Portland State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.8 | 100.3 | 106.1 | 196 |
| 6 | Idaho | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.5 | 101.8 | 108.3 | 209 |
| 7 | Southern Utah | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.5 | 101.2 | 108.6 | 224 |
| 8 | Northern Arizona | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 101.8 | 112.4 | 260 |
| 9 | Idaho State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 100.7 | 111.3 | 263 |
| 10 | Weber State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.0 | 99.2 | 111.2 | 281 |
| 11 | Utah Tech | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.5 | 98.9 | 111.4 | 284 |