Montana Grizzlies
Next: at San Francisco · Tue 10 Nov, 10 PM ETProjected 70-80 · Game page
Makes the tournament10%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.9
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-16
Net rating−4.9Rank 183 of 365 · offence 174, defence 209
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 18-16 (12 to 23 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 11%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 10%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.9
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field10%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Oregonrank 47 | Away | 7% | 59-78 | L 69-87 | Right |
| Wed 4 Nov | vs Salish Kootenainot Division I | Home | — | — | W 105-40 | |
| Tue 10 Nov10 PM ET | at San Franciscorank 117 | Away | 19% | 70-80 | — |
Rooting guide
- Tue 10 Nov: at San FranciscoA win: 10% · a loss: 10%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler ThompsonG | 2 | 30.5 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | −0.8 | +0.7 |
| Jordan ClarkG | 2 | 29.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | −1.4 | +0.3 |
| Connor DickG | 2 | 22.0 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 1.0 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Clayton MpianaF | 2 | 19.5 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.3 |
| LoLo RudolphG | 2 | 17.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 6.0 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
| Semaj CarterG | 2 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
| Jalen BrownG | 1 | 30.0 | 19.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | −0.9 | +0.6 |
| Josiah SandersF | 2 | 14.5 | 9.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | −0.8 | +0.3 |
| Noah BendingerG | 2 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −0.8 | +0.3 |
| Courtney Anderson Jr.G | 1 | 18.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.2 | +0.6 |
| Garret DutroG | 2 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | −0.6 | +0.2 |
| Seven PridgenG | 1 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −0.5 | +0.3 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.0%rank 95 | 51.9%rank 321 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 17.5%rank 25 | 18.1%rank 279 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.2%rank 325 | 30.6%rank 63 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.0%rank 228 | 23.9%rank 71 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −4.3 points a game (they shot 45.5%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −3.8
- Last season's net rating
- −2.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 33%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- −1.1
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 103.2 (rank 174)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 108.1 (rank 209)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.2 (rank 79)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +15.3 (rank 46)
Big Sky Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.8 | 106.0 | 104.2 | 120 |
| 2 | Northern Colorado | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.9 | 104.2 | 107.1 | 155 |
| 3 | Eastern Washington | 0-1 | 0-0 | −4.2 | 104.5 | 108.7 | 173 |
| 4 | Montana | 1-1 | 0-0 | −4.9 | 103.2 | 108.1 | 183 |
| 5 | Portland State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.8 | 100.3 | 106.1 | 196 |
| 6 | Idaho | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.5 | 101.8 | 108.3 | 208 |
| 7 | Southern Utah | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.5 | 101.2 | 108.6 | 224 |
| 8 | Northern Arizona | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 101.8 | 112.4 | 260 |
| 9 | Idaho State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 100.7 | 111.3 | 263 |
| 10 | Weber State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.0 | 99.3 | 111.3 | 281 |
| 11 | Utah Tech | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.5 | 98.9 | 111.4 | 284 |