Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Next: at New Mexico · Sat 7 Nov, 6 PM ETProjected 64-88 · Game page
Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.7
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-21
Net rating−10.7Rank 260 of 365 · offence 203, defence 321
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 13-21 (8 to 18 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-12
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 3%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.7
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field3%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at UNLVrank 99 | Away | 9% | 66-83 | L 77-89 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov6 PM ET | at New Mexicorank 45 | Away | 2% | 64-88 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET | at Arizonarank 16 | Away | 1% | 62-92 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: at New MexicoA win: 2% · a loss: 1%+1 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at ArizonaA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max MajerleG · transfer from N Dakota St | 1 | 37.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −3.2 | −0.7 |
| Chris KominG | 1 | 32.0 | 24.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Lucas ToukamF | 1 | 26.0 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −2.2 | −0.1 |
| Tamiel GreenF | 1 | 25.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Ryan AbelmanG | 1 | 22.0 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Mason DorseyG | 1 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Cade BennettG · transfer from Saint Mary's | 1 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +0.4 | +0.6 |
| Dylan AndersonF · transfer from Murray St | 1 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Luke WieskampF | 1 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
| Noah GeorgeG | 1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 52.7%rank 12 | 50.0%rank 147 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.4%rank 318 | 18.2%rank 244 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.9%rank 125 | 34.1%rank 345 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 27.1%rank 61 | 27.1%rank 298 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −3.9 points a game (they shot 38.1%, league 31.9%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −10.3
- Last season's net rating
- −14.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 38%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.2
- Change since preseason
- −0.3
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 101.6 (rank 203)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 112.3 (rank 321)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 69.6 (rank 336)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +5.7 (rank 86)
Big Sky Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.7 | 105.8 | 104.1 | 120 |
| 2 | Northern Colorado | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.9 | 104.0 | 107.0 | 156 |
| 3 | Eastern Washington | 0-1 | 0-0 | −4.3 | 104.3 | 108.6 | 175 |
| 4 | Montana | 1-1 | 0-0 | −5.1 | 103.0 | 108.0 | 185 |
| 5 | Portland State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.8 | 100.1 | 106.0 | 196 |
| 6 | Idaho | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.5 | 101.7 | 108.2 | 211 |
| 7 | Southern Utah | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.5 | 101.0 | 108.5 | 223 |
| 8 | Northern Arizona | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 101.6 | 112.3 | 260 |
| 9 | Idaho State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.8 | 100.5 | 111.2 | 265 |
| 10 | Weber State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.1 | 99.0 | 111.2 | 282 |
| 11 | Utah Tech | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.6 | 98.7 | 111.3 | 284 |