UNLV Rebels

Men's · Mountain West Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Samford · Sat 7 Nov, 4 PM ET

Samford14%86%UNLV

Projected 84-71 · Game page

Makes the tournament11%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.1

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 21-12

Net rating+5.7Rank 99 of 365 · offence 83, defence 120

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 21-12 (16 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 6%
Wins the conference tournament: 7%
Average seed if in the field: 11.1
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field11%
Round of 322%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Northern Arizonarank 260	Home	91%	83-66	W 89-77	Right
Sat 7 Nov4 PM ET	vs Samfordrank 191	Home	86%	84-71	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 11% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs SamfordA win: 11% · a loss: 10%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Sebastian MackG · transfer from Missouri	1	37.0	31.0	2.0	3.0	+0.9	+2.0
Cam MilesG · transfer from Florida St	1	37.0	15.0	2.0	4.0	+0.6	+1.8
Tyrin JonesF	1	34.0	12.0	8.0	1.0	+3.7	+3.5
Jeremy FoumenaC · transfer from UCF	1	25.0	13.0	11.0	0.0	+1.5	+1.6
Dontrez WilliamsG · transfer from Lindenwood	1	24.0	12.0	1.0	2.0	+0.3	+1.0
Kota Suttle Jr.G	1	17.0	3.0	2.0	1.0	−0.9	+0.3
MJ ThomasF · transfer from LSU N Orleans	1	12.0	2.0	4.0	0.0	+2.1	+0.9
Jackson KissF	1	11.0	1.0	2.0	1.0	−0.8	+0.2
Terrance Ford Jr.G	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.6	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.2%rank 233	53.0%rank 354	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.3%rank 129	19.4%rank 44	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	34.1%rank 19	31.9%rank 248	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	26.7%rank 58	26.8%rank 310	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −10.7 points a game (they shot 47.8%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +5.4
Last season's net rating: +5.8
Last season's minutes returning: 23%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +2.8
Change since preseason: +0.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 109.7 (rank 83)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 104.0 (rank 120)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.2 (rank 85)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −10.6 (rank 206)

Mountain West Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	New Mexico	1-0	0-0	+15.4	112.6	97.2	46
2	Nevada	1-0	0-0	+14.0	112.4	98.3	57
3	Grand Canyon	1-0	0-0	+10.9	111.2	100.2	70
4	UNLV	1-0	0-0	+5.7	109.7	104.0	99
5	Wyoming	1-0	0-0	+2.3	106.5	104.2	119
6	San José State	1-0	0-0	−1.3	105.9	107.3	141
7	Hawai'i	1-0	0-0	−2.2	102.1	104.2	148
8	UC Davis	0-1	0-0	−6.3	100.1	106.4	202
9	UTEP	0-1	0-0	−10.8	99.6	110.4	267
10	Air Force	0-1	0-0	−13.6	98.5	112.2	298