Grand Canyon Lopes

Men's · Mountain West Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Bethune · Sat 7 Nov, 8 PM ET

Bethune1%99%Grand Canyon

Projected 89-63 · Game page

Makes the tournament30%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 10.7

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 24-9

Net rating+11.0Rank 71 of 365 · offence 72, defence 75

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 24-9 (20 to 29 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 22%
Wins the conference tournament: 19%
Average seed if in the field: 10.7
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field30%
Round of 328%
Sweet 162%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Texas Southernrank 310	Home	98%	80-54	W 103-79	Right
Sat 7 Nov8 PM ET	vs Bethune-Cookmanrank 324	Home	99%	89-63	—
Wed 11 Nov9 PM ET	vs Cal Polyrank 136	Home	87%	88-73	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 30% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs Bethune-CookmanA win: 30% · a loss: 30%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs Cal PolyA win: 30% · a loss: 28%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Dylan DarlingG · transfer from St John's	1	28.0	15.0	5.0	6.0	+3.9	+3.0
Amarion DickersonF · transfer from USC	1	25.0	12.0	4.0	4.0	+0.5	+1.2
Tre HollomanG · transfer from NC State	1	23.0	7.0	2.0	6.0	+2.6	+1.9
Jaden HenleyG	1	21.0	22.0	5.0	1.0	+5.0	+2.7
Blake BarkleyF · transfer from ETSU	1	19.0	8.0	3.0	1.0	+2.9	+1.7
Omaha BiliewF · transfer from Wake Forest	1	19.0	8.0	4.0	2.0	+1.0	+1.0
Jaden ZimmermanG · transfer from Quinnipiac	1	17.0	9.0	3.0	1.0	−1.3	+0.2
Efe DemirelC	1	16.0	11.0	2.0	0.0	+3.6	+1.6
Tyler BehrendF · transfer from Tulsa	1	15.0	6.0	8.0	0.0	+2.8	+1.3
Micah TuckerG · transfer from Georgia St	1	10.0	5.0	1.0	1.0	−0.9	+0.2
Caleb ShawG	1	6.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	+2.4	+0.5
Jack SawyerF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.6	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.0%rank 83	50.2%rank 225	50.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.9%rank 278	17.9%rank 298	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	33.9%rank 27	31.9%rank 247	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	27.6%rank 48	28.9%rank 351	25.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +3.3 points a game (they shot 25.0%, league 31.9%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +11.9
Last season's net rating: +13.0
Last season's minutes returning: 47%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +7.8
Change since preseason: −0.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 111.1 (rank 72)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 100.0 (rank 75)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.2 (rank 62)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −14.6 (rank 251)

Mountain West Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	New Mexico	1-0	0-0	+15.5	112.5	97.0	45
2	Nevada	1-0	0-0	+14.1	112.3	98.2	58
3	Grand Canyon	1-0	0-0	+11.0	111.1	100.0	71
4	UNLV	1-0	0-0	+5.7	109.6	103.9	99
5	Wyoming	1-0	0-0	+2.3	106.4	104.1	119
6	San José State	1-0	0-0	−1.2	105.8	107.1	138
7	Hawai'i	1-0	0-0	−2.1	102.0	104.0	148
8	UC Davis	0-1	0-0	−6.2	100.0	106.2	201
9	UTEP	0-1	0-0	−10.8	99.5	110.3	267
10	Air Force	0-1	0-0	−13.7	98.3	112.1	298