Colorado State Rams

Men's · Pac-12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Idaho · Fri 6 Nov, 9 PM ET

Idaho7%93%Colorado St

Projected 84-66 · Game page

Makes the tournament23%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 21-11

Net rating+11.0Rank 69 of 365 · offence 63, defence 93

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 21-11 (16 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 10%
Wins the conference tournament: 10%
Average seed if in the field: 9.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field23%
Round of 328%
Sweet 162%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Montana Staterank 120	Home	81%	73-62	W 84-74	Right
Fri 6 Nov9 PM ET	vs Idahorank 209	Home	93%	84-66	—
Wed 11 Nov9 PM ET	vs Portland Staterank 196	Home	92%	83-65	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 23% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs IdahoA win: 23% · a loss: 22%+1 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs Portland StateA win: 23% · a loss: 22%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jase ButlerG	1	32.0	12.0	10.0	6.0	+2.1	+2.3
Josh PascarelliG	1	32.0	16.0	2.0	1.0	+2.0	+2.3
Kyle JorgensenF	1	29.0	8.0	7.0	2.0	+3.6	+2.9
Carey BoothF	1	28.0	16.0	1.0	1.0	+4.8	+3.4
Justin MenardG · transfer from Marist	1	21.0	10.0	1.0	1.0	+2.1	+1.5
Jojo McIverG	1	19.0	3.0	0.0	4.0	−0.1	+0.7
Jaden GhoreishiF	1	14.0	9.0	11.0	0.0	−0.3	+0.4
Rashaan MbembaF	1	13.0	6.0	2.0	0.0	+2.6	+1.1
Pops DunsonG	1	8.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.3
Amondo Miller Jr.F	1	4.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.1%rank 85	51.2%rank 286	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.6%rank 334	17.5%rank 337	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.6%rank 303	30.3%rank 44	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	26.2%rank 76	24.8%rank 123	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −3.0 points a game (they shot 35.3%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +11.1
Last season's net rating: +9.4
Last season's minutes returning: 58%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.2
Change since preseason: −0.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 112.3 (rank 63)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 101.4 (rank 93)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.1 (rank 317)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +1.8 (rank 109)

Pac-12 Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Gonzaga	1-0	0-0	+20.5	115.6	95.1	27
2	Utah State	1-0	0-0	+15.1	114.8	99.7	51
3	Colorado State	1-0	0-0	+11.0	112.3	101.4	69
4	Boise State	1-0	0-0	+10.4	110.9	100.4	74
5	San Diego State	1-0	0-0	+9.0	110.2	101.2	83
6	Oregon State	1-0	0-0	+6.7	108.9	102.2	96
7	Texas State	1-0	0-0	−2.9	103.3	106.2	154
8	Fresno State	1-0	0-0	−3.3	102.3	105.5	161
9	Washington State	0-1	0-0	−4.2	102.4	106.7	173