Gonzaga Bulldogs

Men's · Pac-12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs New Mexico St · Sat 7 Nov, 5 PM ET

New Mexico St2%98%Gonzaga

Projected 87-62 · Game page

Makes the tournament84%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 6.7

Wins the national title1%Final Four 4% · projected 25-6

Net rating+20.5Rank 27 of 365 · offence 27, defence 22

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 25-6 (21 to 29 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-3
Wins or shares the conference title: 67%
Wins the conference tournament: 47%
Average seed if in the field: 6.7
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field84%
Round of 3257%
Sweet 1624%
Elite Eight9%
Final Four4%
Title game1%
Champion1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Purduerank 17	Neutral	42%	68-70	W 78-72	Wrong
Sat 7 Nov5 PM ET	vs New Mexico Staterank 180	Home	98%	87-62	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 84% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs New Mexico StateA win: 84% · a loss: 81%+3 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Braden HuffF	1	36.0	10.0	7.0	2.0	+6.7	+5.7
Davis FogleG	1	34.0	22.0	5.0	2.0	+6.2	+5.0
Xaivian LeeG · transfer from Florida	1	29.0	18.0	4.0	3.0	+5.9	+4.1
Izan AlmansaF	1	29.0	11.0	4.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.6
Isiah HarwellG · transfer from Houston	1	27.0	2.0	2.0	3.0	+3.9	+2.9
Nathan De SousaG	1	17.0	3.0	1.0	4.0	−0.6	+0.5
Massamba DiopC · transfer from Arizona St	1	16.0	7.0	2.0	1.0	+5.1	+2.1
Javon BennettG · transfer from Dayton	1	13.0	5.0	2.0	0.0	+3.8	+1.4

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.2%rank 232	50.6%rank 250	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.9%rank 61	17.9%rank 302	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.3%rank 241	30.3%rank 52	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	28.9%rank 10	25.5%rank 252	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.4 expected (+0.6)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +5.4 points a game (they shot 23.8%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +19.5
Last season's net rating: +29.1
Last season's minutes returning: 14%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +12.0
Change since preseason: +1.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 115.6 (rank 27)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 95.1 (rank 22)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.7 (rank 140)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +21.9 (rank 16)

Pac-12 Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Gonzaga	1-0	0-0	+20.5	115.6	95.1	27
2	Utah State	1-0	0-0	+15.1	114.8	99.7	51
3	Colorado State	1-0	0-0	+11.0	112.3	101.4	69
4	Boise State	1-0	0-0	+10.4	110.9	100.4	74
5	San Diego State	1-0	0-0	+9.0	110.2	101.2	83
6	Oregon State	1-0	0-0	+6.7	108.9	102.2	96
7	Texas State	1-0	0-0	−2.9	103.3	106.2	154
8	Fresno State	1-0	0-0	−3.3	102.3	105.5	161
9	Washington State	0-1	0-0	−4.2	102.4	106.7	173