Fresno State Bulldogs

Men's · Pac-12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at UC San Diego · Sat 7 Nov, 10 PM ET

Fresno St21%79%UC San Diego

Projected 68-78 · Game page

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-20

Net rating−3.3Rank 161 of 365 · offence 191, defence 148

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 13-20 (8 to 18 wins)
Projected conference record: 4-12
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field1%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Fresno Pacificnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 88-79
Sat 7 Nov10 PM ET	at UC San Diegorank 108	Away	21%	68-78	—
Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET	vs Georgia Staterank 315	Home	86%	80-67	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at UC San DiegoA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs Georgia StateA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Roger Fabrega UrpinaG	1	38.0	15.0	3.0	4.0	−1.9	+0.1
Dragos LunguG · transfer from UT Martin	1	35.0	30.0	7.0	2.0	−0.7	+0.9
Ross CandelinoG · transfer from Lipscomb	1	34.0	17.0	8.0	3.0	+0.4	+1.5
Brian AmunekeG · transfer from Wichita St	1	33.0	11.0	2.0	1.0	−0.6	+0.9
Bradey HenigeF · transfer from CA Baptist	1	23.0	10.0	5.0	0.0	+0.4	+1.0
Baye FallC · transfer from Rutgers	1	13.0	5.0	6.0	1.0	−1.2	+0.2
KJ PerryG	1	12.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−1.3	+0.2
Marko VuckovicF	1	4.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−1.1	+0.1
Quentin RhymesG	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−1.0	+0.1
Rylan ParsleyF	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.0	+0.1
Colin SchroederF	1	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−1.0	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.1%rank 148	50.1%rank 155	50.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 158	18.5%rank 136	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 132	31.7%rank 172	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.6%rank 135	25.6%rank 161	25.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −3.3
Last season's net rating: +2.7
Last season's minutes returning: 0%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.7
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 102.2 (rank 191)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 105.4 (rank 148)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.6 (rank 122)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Pac-12 Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Gonzaga	1-0	0-0	+20.5	115.5	95.0	27
2	Utah State	1-0	0-0	+15.2	114.7	99.5	51
3	Colorado State	1-0	0-0	+11.1	112.3	101.2	70
4	Boise State	1-0	0-0	+10.4	110.8	100.3	75
5	San Diego State	1-0	0-0	+9.1	110.2	101.0	82
6	Oregon State	1-0	0-0	+6.8	108.8	102.0	94
7	Texas State	2-0	0-0	−2.8	103.2	106.0	155
8	Fresno State	1-0	0-0	−3.3	102.2	105.4	161
9	Washington State	0-1	0-0	−4.1	102.3	106.5	172