UC San Diego Tritons
Makes the tournament26%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.2
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 24-9
Net rating+4.2Rank 108 of 365 · offence 126, defence 93
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 24-9 (18 to 29 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 16-6
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 32%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 23%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.2
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field26%
- Round of 323%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Whittiernot Division I | Home | — | — | W 100-75 | |
| Sat 7 Nov10 PM ET | vs Fresno Staterank 161 | Home | 79% | 78-68 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs Fresno StateA win: 26% · a loss: 24%+2 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rahmir BarnoG · transfer from FGCU | 1 | 29.0 | 19.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | +0.1 | +1.1 |
| Leo BeathF | 1 | 28.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +2.1 | +2.1 |
| Treysen EaglestaffG · transfer from West Virginia | 1 | 21.0 | 16.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | +3.6 | +2.1 |
| Alex ChaikinG | 1 | 21.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +0.7 | +1.0 |
| Jake HolmesF | 1 | 20.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −0.4 | +0.6 |
| Kayde DotsonG · transfer from Loyola Chicago | 1 | 17.0 | 21.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −0.5 | +0.5 |
| Dimitrije VukicevicC | 1 | 15.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | +0.3 | +0.6 |
| Aidan BurkeG | 1 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.7 | +0.6 |
| Olavi SuutelaF · transfer from Oregon St | 1 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | +0.2 | +0.5 |
| Jaden VanceF | 1 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | +1.7 | +0.7 |
| Jasen BrooksG | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 |
| Jordan JohnsonG | 1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.2 |
| Cade PendletonF | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.4 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.1%rank 148 | 50.1%rank 155 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.5%rank 158 | 18.5%rank 136 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 132 | 31.7%rank 172 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.6%rank 135 | 25.6%rank 161 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +4.2
- Last season's net rating
- +3.4
- Last season's minutes returning
- 64%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.6
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 105.5 (rank 126)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 101.3 (rank 93)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.4 (rank 145)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Big West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UC San Diego | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 105.5 | 101.3 | 108 |
| 2 | UC Irvine | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 104.2 | 100.0 | 109 |
| 3 | Utah Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.4 | 106.0 | 102.6 | 113 |
| 4 | UC Santa Barbara | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.1 | 106.2 | 106.1 | 127 |
| 5 | Cal Poly | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.0 | 106.1 | 107.1 | 136 |
| 6 | Cal State Northridge | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.5 | 100.5 | 106.0 | 191 |
| 7 | California Baptist | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.1 | 98.5 | 104.6 | 199 |
| 8 | Cal State Fullerton | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.5 | 103.5 | 110.0 | 210 |
| 9 | UC Riverside | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.2 | 100.4 | 108.5 | 233 |
| 10 | Long Beach State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.1 | 98.4 | 107.4 | 244 |
| 11 | Sacramento State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.2 | 99.7 | 109.9 | 254 |
| 12 | Cal State Bakersfield | 0-0 | 0-0 | −12.1 | 98.7 | 110.8 | 281 |