UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
Makes the tournament13%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 21-13
Net rating+0.1Rank 125 of 365 · offence 111, defence 162
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 21-13 (15 to 28 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 14-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 12%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 11%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field13%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs San Francisco Statenot Division I | Home | — | — | W 85-55 | |
| Sat 7 Nov4 PM ET | vs Oaklandrank 157 | Home | 71% | 80-74 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov9 PM ET | vs Nevadarank 57 | Home | 30% | 71-78 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs OaklandA win: 13% · a loss: 12%+1 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs NevadaA win: 14% · a loss: 12%+2 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan MahaneyG | 1 | 20.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +0.7 |
| RJ SmithG · transfer from DePaul | 1 | 19.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | −0.3 | +0.6 |
| Antonio CholF · transfer from New Mexico | 1 | 19.0 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | +0.8 | +1.0 |
| Viljami VartiainenG · transfer from Weber St | 1 | 18.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | +0.5 |
| CJ ShawG | 1 | 17.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | +0.8 | +0.9 |
| Declan Duru Jr.F · transfer from Texas | 1 | 17.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | +0.6 | +0.8 |
| Marvin McGhee IVG | 1 | 16.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | +0.6 | +0.8 |
| Miro LittleG | 1 | 14.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | +2.5 | +1.1 |
| Eric DibamiC · transfer from FIU | 1 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +0.3 | +0.6 |
| Luke ZuffelatoG | 1 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −2.7 | −0.1 |
| Jordan CharlesG | 1 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.4 | +0.1 |
| Koat Keat TongF | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.1 |
| Michael SimcoeF | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | +0.2 |
| Marco John WuolC | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.3 | +0.1 |
| Bryce BedgoodF | 1 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.3 | +0.1 |
| John SimcoeF | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.4%rank 135 | 50.4%rank 153 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.6%rank 155 | 18.6%rank 133 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 127 | 31.7%rank 162 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.2%rank 133 | 25.2%rank 152 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +0.1
- Last season's net rating
- +2.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 55%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +2.5
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 106.3 (rank 111)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 106.2 (rank 162)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.5 (rank 290)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Big West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UC San Diego | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 105.7 | 101.4 | 107 |
| 2 | UC Irvine | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 104.3 | 100.1 | 108 |
| 3 | Utah Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.4 | 106.1 | 102.7 | 112 |
| 4 | UC Santa Barbara | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.1 | 106.3 | 106.2 | 125 |
| 5 | Cal Poly | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.0 | 106.2 | 107.2 | 135 |
| 6 | Cal State Northridge | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.4 | 100.7 | 106.1 | 190 |
| 7 | California Baptist | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.2 | 98.6 | 104.8 | 200 |
| 8 | Cal State Fullerton | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.4 | 103.7 | 110.1 | 207 |
| 9 | UC Riverside | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.2 | 100.5 | 108.6 | 235 |
| 10 | Long Beach State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.0 | 98.6 | 107.5 | 245 |
| 11 | Sacramento State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.2 | 99.8 | 110.0 | 258 |
| 12 | Cal State Bakersfield | 0-0 | 0-0 | −12.1 | 98.8 | 110.9 | 283 |