Oakland Golden Grizzlies

Men's · Horizon League · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at Stanford · Fri 6 Nov, 10 PM ET

Oakland11%89%Stanford

Projected 70-85 · Game page

Makes the tournament15%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.0

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-19

Net rating−3.0Rank 157 of 365 · offence 131, defence 215

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 15-19 (10 to 21 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 20%
Wins the conference tournament: 15%
Average seed if in the field: 14.0
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field15%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Michiganrank 6	Away	0%	55-89	L 68-84	Right
Fri 6 Nov10 PM ET	at Stanfordrank 75	Away	11%	70-85	—
Sat 7 Nov4 PM ET	at UC Santa Barbararank 126	Away	29%	74-80	—
Mon 9 Nov7:30 PM ET	at Alabamarank 14	Away	1%	67-95	—
Wed 11 Nov9 PM ET	at Boise Staterank 73	Away	11%	69-84	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 15% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at StanfordA win: 16% · a loss: 15%+2 pts
Sat 7 Nov: at UC Santa BarbaraA win: 15% · a loss: 15%0 pts
Mon 9 Nov: at AlabamaA win: 16% · a loss: 15%+1 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at Boise StateA win: 14% · a loss: 15%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Chris Fields Jr.F · transfer from Campbell	1	34.0	18.0	10.0	1.0	+1.5	+2.2
Nassim MashhourG	1	32.0	16.0	4.0	1.0	−1.7	+0.2
Warren Marshall IVG	1	28.0	6.0	4.0	1.0	−1.1	+0.5
Ryder BradleyG	1	26.0	12.0	6.0	1.0	−1.3	+0.4
Belal El ShakeryF · transfer from New Hampshire	1	22.0	6.0	5.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.5
William KassiG	1	18.0	4.0	2.0	1.0	−1.1	+0.3
RJ TaylorG · transfer from Northern Iowa	1	17.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	+0.6	+0.8
Hamoudy MashhourG	1	13.0	2.0	3.0	0.0	−1.0	+0.2
Camden ThompsonF	1	3.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	−0.7	+0.1
Nate AhnerF	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.7	+0.1
Brady SwartzG · transfer from W Michigan	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.6	0.0
Ivan StojanovskiG	1	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.7	0.0
Deuce HamiltonG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.7	0.0
Isaiah TheodileF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.7	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	48.9%rank 327	49.1%rank 57	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 149	17.9%rank 299	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	35.0%rank 6	32.7%rank 292	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	27.6%rank 36	23.9%rank 66	25.3%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +11.9 points a game (they shot 20.6%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −5.8
Last season's net rating: +0.1
Last season's minutes returning: 10%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.8
Change since preseason: +2.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 105.2 (rank 131)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 108.3 (rank 215)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.4 (rank 58)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +28.1 (rank 5)

Horizon League by rating

12 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Wright State	1-0	0-0	+0.4	108.2	107.7	125
2	Oakland	0-1	0-0	−3.0	105.2	108.3	157
3	Northern Kentucky	2-0	0-0	−4.3	106.4	110.7	176
4	Youngstown State	1-0	0-0	−6.2	100.6	106.8	202
5	Robert Morris	0-1	0-0	−6.3	101.8	108.1	205
6	Green Bay	1-0	0-0	−6.6	103.4	110.0	212
7	Milwaukee	0-2	0-0	−7.2	100.8	107.9	219
8	Purdue Fort Wayne	0-1	0-0	−7.8	100.6	108.4	230
9	Detroit Mercy	0-0	0-0	−8.0	101.0	109.0	233
10	IU Indianapolis	1-0	0-0	−13.5	99.6	113.1	298
11	Cleveland State	0-1	0-0	−17.2	97.9	115.2	332
12	Northern Illinois	0-1	0-0	−20.2	97.1	117.3	351