Stanford Cardinal

Men's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Oakland · Fri 6 Nov, 10 PM ET

Oakland11%89%Stanford

Projected 85-70 · Game page

Makes the tournament15%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 18-14

Net rating+10.2Rank 76 of 365 · offence 69, defence 90

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 18-14 (14 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-10
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field15%
Round of 326%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Eastern Washingtonrank 173	Home	91%	78-61	W 74-65	Right
Fri 6 Nov10 PM ET	vs Oaklandrank 157	Home	89%	85-70	—
Mon 9 Nov10 PM ET	vs Ricerank 188	Home	91%	83-66	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 15% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs OaklandA win: 15% · a loss: 13%+2 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs RiceA win: 15% · a loss: 15%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Nick TownsendF · transfer from Yale	1	36.0	12.0	6.0	5.0	+5.6	+4.9
Julius PriceG	1	34.0	17.0	2.0	4.0	+0.1	+1.3
Aziz OlajuwonG	1	30.0	12.0	4.0	0.0	+0.2	+1.2
Isaiah RogersG	1	28.0	10.0	4.0	4.0	+0.2	+1.1
Aidan CammannF	1	27.0	13.0	4.0	0.0	+3.4	+2.6
Christian BlissG · transfer from Delaware	1	16.0	4.0	0.0	1.0	+2.4	+1.2
Anthony Batson Jr.G	1	12.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+0.6	+0.6
Donavin YoungF	1	11.0	4.0	3.0	1.0	+2.8	+0.9
Austin MaurerC · transfer from Seattle U	1	6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+4.3	+0.7

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.0%rank 92	50.6%rank 245	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.0%rank 276	18.4%rank 229	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.3%rank 324	33.5%rank 332	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.8%rank 246	26.1%rank 283	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +2.5 points a game (they shot 26.7%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +11.2
Last season's net rating: +12.7
Last season's minutes returning: 17%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.1
Change since preseason: −1.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 111.4 (rank 69)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 101.3 (rank 90)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.6 (rank 276)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −4.2 (rank 147)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	121.9	88.4	1
2	Louisville	1-0	0-0	+21.8	117.0	95.2	18
3	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+20.2	115.0	94.8	28
4	Miami	0-1	0-0	+20.1	116.0	95.9	31
5	North Carolina	1-0	0-0	+15.6	113.7	98.2	44
6	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+14.6	114.4	99.8	53
7	Florida State	1-0	0-0	+14.3	114.0	99.6	54
8	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+13.2	111.7	98.5	58
9	NC State	1-0	0-0	+12.7	112.5	99.9	62
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+11.0	111.5	100.4	67
11	SMU	1-0	0-0	+10.6	110.9	100.3	73
12	Stanford	1-0	0-0	+10.2	111.4	101.3	76
13	Virginia Tech	1-0	0-0	+9.6	109.1	99.4	79
14	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	+7.6	107.9	100.4	87
15	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+7.5	106.1	98.6	88
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+7.4	108.7	101.2	89
17	California	2-0	0-0	+4.5	107.1	102.7	106
18	Boston College	1-0	0-0	+3.9	105.4	101.5	110