Pittsburgh Panthers

Men's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Buffalo · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

Buffalo4%96%Pitt

Projected 83-62 · Game page

Makes the tournament7%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.0

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 16-17

Net rating+7.6Rank 88 of 365 · offence 98, defence 77

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-17 (11 to 21 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-12
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 9.0
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field7%
Round of 322%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Riderrank 354	Home	97%	78-54	W 95-57	Right
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	vs Buffalorank 299	Home	96%	83-62	—
Sun 8 Nov8 PM ET	vs Penn Staterank 68	Neutral	41%	73-76	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 7% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs BuffaloA win: 7% · a loss: 8%0 pts
Sun 8 Nov: vs Penn StateA win: 9% · a loss: 6%+3 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Naithan GeorgeG · transfer from Syracuse	1	29.0	8.0	0.0	8.0	+2.2	+2.2
Jonathan PowellG · transfer from North Carolina	1	28.0	18.0	6.0	2.0	+2.4	+2.2
A'lahn SumlerG · transfer from Charleston So	1	28.0	12.0	4.0	5.0	+1.5	+1.8
Chase FosterF	1	28.0	23.0	6.0	0.0	−1.0	+0.5
Jalil BetheaG · transfer from Alabama	1	20.0	10.0	2.0	4.0	+3.5	+2.0
Baye NdongoF · transfer from Georgia Tech	1	16.0	12.0	6.0	0.0	+3.1	+1.4
Akir SouareF · transfer from Syracuse	1	16.0	0.0	5.0	0.0	0.0	+0.6
Armani MightyC · transfer from Mercer	1	10.0	2.0	3.0	0.0	+3.4	+1.0
Dominique DiomandeF · transfer from BYU	1	7.0	5.0	2.0	0.0	+3.5	+0.7
Kraig GilbertF	1	5.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	−0.5	+0.1
Jermal JonesG	1	4.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	−0.5	+0.1
Macari MooreG	1	4.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	+0.5	+0.2
Colin HawkinsG · transfer from Gardner-Webb	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	−4.3	−0.2
Benjamin MayhewF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.4	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.2%rank 81	49.2%rank 57	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.1%rank 90	18.9%rank 98	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.4%rank 237	31.0%rank 97	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.8%rank 243	25.6%rank 259	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +2.3 points a game (they shot 29.2%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +6.5
Last season's net rating: +7.5
Last season's minutes returning: 2%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.5
Change since preseason: +1.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 107.9 (rank 98)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 100.3 (rank 77)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.1 (rank 317)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −21.4 (rank 279)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	121.9	88.4	1
2	Louisville	1-0	0-0	+21.8	117.0	95.2	18
3	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+20.2	115.0	94.8	28
4	Miami	0-1	0-0	+20.1	116.0	95.9	31
5	North Carolina	1-0	0-0	+15.6	113.7	98.1	44
6	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+14.6	114.4	99.7	53
7	Florida State	1-0	0-0	+14.3	113.9	99.6	54
8	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+13.2	111.7	98.5	58
9	NC State	1-0	0-0	+12.7	112.5	99.8	62
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+11.1	111.5	100.4	67
11	SMU	1-0	0-0	+10.6	110.9	100.3	73
12	Stanford	1-0	0-0	+10.2	111.4	101.2	76
13	Virginia Tech	1-0	0-0	+9.6	109.0	99.4	79
14	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	+7.6	107.9	100.3	88
15	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+7.6	106.1	98.5	89
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+7.5	108.6	101.2	90
17	California	2-0	0-0	+4.5	107.1	102.6	105
18	Boston College	1-0	0-0	+3.9	105.4	101.5	109