SMU Mustangs

Men's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs VMI · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ET

VMI1%99%SMU

Projected 90-62 · Game page

Makes the tournament15%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.8

Wins the national title<1%Final Four <1% · projected 19-14

Net rating+10.6Rank 73 of 365 · offence 76, defence 74

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-14 (14 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-10
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field15%
Round of 326%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Southernrank 291	Home	99%	84-56	W 85-72	Right
Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET	vs VMIrank 336	Home	99%	90-62	—
Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET	vs Prairie View A&Mrank 346	Home	99%	92-62	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 15% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs VMIA win: 15% · a loss: 15%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs Prairie View A&MA win: 15% · a loss: 15%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jakub SzumertNA	1	31.0	24.0	7.0	2.0	−0.5	+0.9
Jaden ToombsF	1	29.0	9.0	8.0	7.0	+4.0	+3.2
Oziyah SellersG · transfer from St John's	1	28.0	13.0	4.0	1.0	+3.8	+3.0
Rowan BrumbaughG · transfer from Tulane	1	28.0	9.0	2.0	4.0	+2.7	+2.4
Jermaine O'Neal Jr.F	1	24.0	15.0	4.0	1.0	+2.3	+1.9
Billy White IIIF	1	18.0	9.0	4.0	0.0	−0.3	+0.6
David Terrell Jr.G · transfer from North Texas	1	12.0	2.0	2.0	4.0	+3.2	+1.1
Johan MunchF · transfer from Oregon St	1	11.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+2.2	+0.8
Nic CodieF · transfer from Texas	1	10.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+3.2	+0.9
Cameron LomaxG	1	9.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	−0.1	+0.3

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.9%rank 104	51.3%rank 293	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	20.6%rank 359	19.0%rank 76	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.6%rank 212	31.6%rank 150	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	31.0%rank 2	25.0%rank 135	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −3.6 points a game (they shot 38.1%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.7 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +13.9
Last season's net rating: +18.6
Last season's minutes returning: 16%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +6.4
Change since preseason: −3.3

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 110.9 (rank 76)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 100.3 (rank 74)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.2 (rank 85)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −12.9 (rank 227)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	121.9	88.4	1
2	Louisville	1-0	0-0	+21.8	117.0	95.2	18
3	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+20.2	115.0	94.8	28
4	Miami	0-1	0-0	+20.1	116.0	95.9	31
5	North Carolina	1-0	0-0	+15.6	113.7	98.2	44
6	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+14.6	114.4	99.8	53
7	Florida State	1-0	0-0	+14.3	114.0	99.6	54
8	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+13.2	111.7	98.5	58
9	NC State	1-0	0-0	+12.7	112.5	99.9	62
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+11.0	111.5	100.4	67
11	SMU	1-0	0-0	+10.6	110.9	100.3	73
12	Stanford	1-0	0-0	+10.2	111.4	101.3	76
13	Virginia Tech	1-0	0-0	+9.6	109.1	99.4	79
14	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	+7.6	107.9	100.4	87
15	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+7.5	106.1	98.6	88
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+7.4	108.7	101.2	89
17	California	2-0	0-0	+4.5	107.1	102.7	106
18	Boston College	1-0	0-0	+3.9	105.4	101.5	110