Virginia Tech Hokies

Men's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Mercer · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

Mercer7%93%Virginia Tech

Projected 84-66 · Game page

Makes the tournament19%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 18-15

Net rating+9.6Rank 77 of 365 · offence 88, defence 61

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 18-15 (12 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-10
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field19%
Round of 328%
Sweet 162%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Coppin Staterank 362	Home	100%	90-58	W 88-54	Right
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	vs Mercerrank 229	Home	93%	84-66	Live
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs Iowarank 20	Neutral	22%	68-77	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 19% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs MercerA win: 19% · a loss: 19%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs IowaA win: 28% · a loss: 17%+10 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Ben HammondG	1	33.0	20.0	3.0	8.0	+2.8	+2.9
Amani HansberryF	1	29.0	16.0	9.0	4.0	+3.8	+3.0
Jaylen CurryG · transfer from Oklahoma St	1	27.0	19.0	1.0	1.0	+1.8	+1.8
Tyler JohnsonG	1	22.0	13.0	7.0	2.0	+1.8	+1.5
Isaiah ElohimG · transfer from FAU	1	21.0	6.0	2.0	2.0	+0.4	+0.9
Miles HeideF · transfer from San Diego St	1	20.0	5.0	5.0	0.0	+1.6	+1.3
Butta JohnsonG · transfer from Clemson	1	17.0	3.0	2.0	1.0	+2.1	+1.3
Musa SagniaC · transfer from NC State	1	13.0	2.0	3.0	1.0	+1.4	+0.8
Kuol AtakF · transfer from Oklahoma	1	6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.5	+0.5
Sin'Cere JonesF	1	6.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	−0.6	+0.1
Solomon DavisC	1	4.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−1.6	0.0
Ethan CopelandG · transfer from Stetson	1	2.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−0.5	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.3%rank 71	49.3%rank 67	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.1%rank 297	20.6%rank 7	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	33.5%rank 39	32.8%rank 296	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.4%rank 127	26.1%rank 276	25.3%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +5.6 points a game (they shot 16.7%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +10.6
Last season's net rating: +14.7
Last season's minutes returning: 37%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +4.4
Change since preseason: −0.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 109.1 (rank 88)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 99.5 (rank 61)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.2 (rank 202)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −23.6 (rank 288)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	122.0	88.5	1
2	Louisville	1-0	0-0	+22.2	116.7	94.5	17
3	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+20.2	115.1	94.9	28
4	Miami	0-1	0-0	+20.1	116.1	96.0	31
5	North Carolina	1-0	0-0	+15.6	113.8	98.2	44
6	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+14.6	114.5	99.8	53
7	Florida State	1-0	0-0	+14.3	114.0	99.7	54
8	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+13.2	111.8	98.5	58
9	NC State	1-0	0-0	+12.7	112.6	99.9	62
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+11.1	111.5	100.5	67
11	SMU	1-0	0-0	+10.6	111.0	100.3	72
12	Stanford	1-0	0-0	+10.2	111.5	101.3	75
13	Virginia Tech	1-0	0-0	+9.6	109.1	99.5	77
14	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	+7.6	108.0	100.4	86
15	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+7.6	106.2	98.6	87
16	Wake Forest	1-1	0-0	+6.8	107.1	100.3	94
17	California	2-0	0-0	+4.5	107.2	102.7	106
18	Boston College	1-0	0-0	+3.9	105.5	101.6	110