Clemson Tigers

Men's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs American · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

American6%94%Clemson

Projected 82-64 · Game page

Makes the tournament37%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.7

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 19-12

Net rating+14.6Rank 53 of 365 · offence 37, defence 66

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-12 (14 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 2%
Wins the conference tournament: 2%
Average seed if in the field: 7.7
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field37%
Round of 3220%
Sweet 166%
Elite Eight2%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Stetsonrank 305	Home	99%	82-52	W 85-72	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs American Universityrank 179	Home	94%	82-64	—
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET	vs North Dakotarank 289	Home	98%	87-62	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 37% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs American UniversityA win: 37% · a loss: 35%+2 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs North DakotaA win: 37% · a loss: 36%+1 pts
Wed 11 Nov: root for Dartmouth against UAlbanyWorth 3.6 points of making the NCAA tournament+3.6 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Liutauras LeleviciusF · transfer from TCU	1	34.0	13.0	6.0	2.0	+2.5	+2.7
Dylan FaulknerF · transfer from Samford	1	33.0	16.0	11.0	5.0	+4.8	+4.0
Cole CertaG · transfer from Notre Dame	1	32.0	13.0	4.0	6.0	+2.0	+2.3
Ace BucknerG	1	26.0	20.0	2.0	4.0	+4.2	+2.9
Chase ThompsonF	1	26.0	6.0	0.0	0.0	+2.2	+1.9
David FuchsF · transfer from San Francisco	1	18.0	12.0	3.0	0.0	+4.0	+1.9
Dallas ThomasF	1	16.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	+2.7	+1.3
Harris ReynoldsG	1	13.0	4.0	2.0	0.0	−0.7	+0.3
Trent SteinourF	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.2	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.1%rank 91	51.7%rank 311	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.1%rank 87	17.3%rank 351	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.0%rank 333	30.9%rank 87	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	29.1%rank 7	23.7%rank 62	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +5.3 points a game (they shot 25.0%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +19.5
Last season's net rating: +19.7
Last season's minutes returning: 28%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +3.0
Change since preseason: −4.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 114.4 (rank 37)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 99.7 (rank 66)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 69.7 (rank 345)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −14.1 (rank 238)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	121.9	88.4	1
2	Louisville	1-0	0-0	+21.8	117.0	95.2	18
3	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+20.2	115.0	94.8	28
4	Miami	0-1	0-0	+20.1	116.0	95.9	31
5	North Carolina	1-0	0-0	+15.6	113.7	98.1	44
6	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+14.6	114.4	99.7	53
7	Florida State	1-0	0-0	+14.3	113.9	99.6	54
8	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+13.2	111.7	98.5	58
9	NC State	1-0	0-0	+12.7	112.5	99.8	62
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+11.1	111.5	100.4	67
11	SMU	1-0	0-0	+10.6	110.9	100.3	73
12	Stanford	1-0	0-0	+10.2	111.4	101.2	76
13	Virginia Tech	1-0	0-0	+9.6	109.0	99.4	79
14	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	+7.6	107.9	100.3	88
15	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+7.6	106.1	98.5	89
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+7.5	108.6	101.2	90
17	California	2-0	0-0	+4.5	107.1	102.6	105
18	Boston College	1-0	0-0	+3.9	105.4	101.5	109