North Dakota Fighting Hawks
Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.2
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-20
Net rating−12.7Rank 289 of 365 · offence 273, defence 309
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 12-20 (7 to 18 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 6-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 4%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 4%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.2
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field4%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
Rooting guide
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach KraftG | 1 | 25.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.2 | −0.5 |
| Carter EvansonG | 1 | 25.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Jayden MooreG | 1 | 22.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Samuel HincapieG · transfer from Le Moyne | 1 | 22.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −3.8 | −0.7 |
| Zack ParksG | 1 | 21.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Luke WinkelG | 1 | 18.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Josh JonesC | 1 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −5.0 | −0.9 |
| Tyler WagnerG · transfer from Austin Peay | 1 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Jayden ThomasF | 1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Andrija RadojevicF | 1 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Sage HansonG | 1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Daemon ElyF | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| DeAngelo DungeyG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 48.1%rank 351 | 51.7%rank 312 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.2%rank 103 | 18.1%rank 281 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.4%rank 238 | 30.5%rank 55 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.2%rank 131 | 22.2%rank 14 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −5.8 points a game (they shot 40.0%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +2.0 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −11.8
- Last season's net rating
- −10.9
- Last season's minutes returning
- 20%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.8
- Change since preseason
- −0.8
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 98.8 (rank 273)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 111.5 (rank 309)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.4 (rank 171)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +11.9 (rank 65)
Summit League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Thomas | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.9 | 106.7 | 108.6 | 145 |
| 2 | South Dakota State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.3 | 102.7 | 106.0 | 163 |
| 3 | North Dakota State | 1-1 | 0-0 | −5.8 | 104.3 | 110.0 | 194 |
| 4 | Omaha | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.6 | 100.4 | 109.9 | 254 |
| 5 | South Dakota | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.7 | 101.6 | 114.2 | 288 |
| 6 | North Dakota | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.7 | 98.8 | 111.5 | 289 |
| 7 | Kansas City | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.9 | 95.0 | 109.0 | 303 |
| 8 | Oral Roberts | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.6 | 97.6 | 112.2 | 311 |