North Dakota State Bison
Next: at San Francisco · Fri 6 Nov, 10 PM ETProjected 69-80 · Game page
Makes the tournament18%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.5
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-16
Net rating−5.8Rank 194 of 365 · offence 150, defence 273
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 18-16 (12 to 24 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-6
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 21%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 18%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.5
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field18%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Crookston (MN)not Division I | Home | — | — | W 90-59 | |
| Wed 4 Nov | at Saint Mary'srank 55 | Away | 8% | 65-83 | L 64-105 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov10 PM ET | at San Franciscorank 117 | Away | 18% | 69-80 | — | |
| Sun 8 Nov6 PM ET | at Cal State Bakersfieldrank 283 | Away | 52% | 78-77 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at San FranciscoA win: 18% · a loss: 18%0 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: at Cal State BakersfieldA win: 18% · a loss: 18%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy StefonowiczG | 2 | 25.5 | 10.5 | 2.0 | 5.0 | +0.1 | +1.0 |
| Melvin Bell Jr.G · transfer from San José St | 2 | 24.5 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Andrew NagyF | 2 | 23.5 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 0.5 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Rob Diaz IIIG · transfer from Long Beach St | 2 | 22.0 | 10.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | +0.2 | +0.9 |
| Max IversenG | 2 | 18.0 | 11.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Carson SmithG | 2 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Karl PoomF · transfer from N Arizona | 2 | 14.0 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | −2.5 | −0.1 |
| Kaden TateF | 2 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −1.4 | +0.2 |
| Riley MasseyG | 2 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | −1.4 | +0.2 |
| Amir DanforthG | 2 | 11.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.3 | +0.1 |
| Jaziah HarperG | 2 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.1 |
| Jack RobisonG · transfer from Wisconsin | 2 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | +2.3 | +0.4 |
| Oliver JunkerF | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.1 |
| Colin StackF | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.1 |
| Chance SchoenfeldF | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.4%rank 295 | 55.4%rank 365 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 17.7%rank 38 | 17.9%rank 305 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 32.5%rank 81 | 29.3%rank 11 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 24.9%rank 232 | 22.5%rank 15 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −29.9 points a game (they shot 64.5%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −4.1
- Last season's net rating
- +5.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 23%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −3.2
- Change since preseason
- −1.7
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 104.2 (rank 150)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 110.0 (rank 273)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.1 (rank 219)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +14.2 (rank 52)
Summit League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Thomas | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.9 | 106.6 | 108.5 | 146 |
| 2 | South Dakota State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.3 | 102.7 | 106.0 | 163 |
| 3 | North Dakota State | 1-1 | 0-0 | −5.8 | 104.2 | 110.0 | 194 |
| 4 | Omaha | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.6 | 100.3 | 109.9 | 254 |
| 5 | South Dakota | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.6 | 101.6 | 114.2 | 288 |
| 6 | North Dakota | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.7 | 98.8 | 111.5 | 289 |
| 7 | Kansas City | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.0 | 95.0 | 108.9 | 303 |
| 8 | Oral Roberts | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.7 | 97.6 | 112.2 | 310 |