Syracuse Orange

Men's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs C Connecticut · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

C Connecticut3%97%Syracuse

Projected 84-60 · Game page

Makes the tournament17%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.1

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 19-14

Net rating+11.1Rank 67 of 365 · offence 67, defence 78

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-14 (14 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-10
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 9.1
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field17%
Round of 327%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs New Havenrank 312	Home	98%	78-53	W 74-58	Right
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	vs Central Connecticutrank 296	Home	97%	84-60	—
Mon 9 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs Indianarank 40	Neutral	36%	73-77	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 17% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs Central ConnecticutA win: 17% · a loss: 17%0 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs IndianaA win: 22% · a loss: 14%+8 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Gavin DotyG · transfer from Siena	1	34.0	14.0	13.0	3.0	+3.7	+3.5
Sadiq White Jr.F	1	25.0	14.0	10.0	1.0	+2.7	+2.1
Kiyan AnthonyG	1	25.0	17.0	3.0	3.0	+1.9	+1.8
Garwey DualG · transfer from McNeese	1	23.0	7.0	1.0	2.0	+3.5	+2.3
Luke WilsonC · transfer from App State	1	23.0	4.0	5.0	0.0	+3.7	+2.3
Mark MoranoF	1	22.0	9.0	1.0	1.0	−0.2	+0.7
Ryan MoeschG	1	17.0	0.0	0.0	5.0	−0.1	+0.6
Abdramane SibyC	1	16.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.6
Amarri MonroeF · transfer from Quinnipiac	1	9.0	5.0	2.0	0.0	+3.4	+0.9
Tasman GoodrickF · transfer from Siena	1	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.5	+0.4
Iker MartinezC	1	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+0.3	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	48.8%rank 330	51.0%rank 271	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.3%rank 15	18.4%rank 226	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.5%rank 225	30.6%rank 69	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.3%rank 122	23.2%rank 43	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −0.6 points a game (they shot 33.3%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +11.8
Last season's net rating: +10.3
Last season's minutes returning: 16%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.8
Change since preseason: −0.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 111.5 (rank 67)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 100.4 (rank 78)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.0 (rank 230)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −15.0 (rank 246)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	121.9	88.4	1
2	Louisville	1-0	0-0	+21.8	117.0	95.2	18
3	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+20.2	115.0	94.8	28
4	Miami	0-1	0-0	+20.1	116.0	95.9	31
5	North Carolina	1-0	0-0	+15.6	113.7	98.1	44
6	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+14.6	114.4	99.7	53
7	Florida State	1-0	0-0	+14.3	113.9	99.6	54
8	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+13.2	111.7	98.5	58
9	NC State	1-0	0-0	+12.7	112.5	99.8	62
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+11.1	111.5	100.4	67
11	SMU	1-0	0-0	+10.6	110.9	100.3	73
12	Stanford	1-0	0-0	+10.2	111.4	101.2	76
13	Virginia Tech	1-0	0-0	+9.6	109.0	99.4	79
14	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	+7.6	107.9	100.3	88
15	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+7.6	106.1	98.5	89
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+7.5	108.6	101.2	90
17	California	2-0	0-0	+4.5	107.1	102.6	105
18	Boston College	1-0	0-0	+3.9	105.4	101.5	109