New Haven Chargers

Men's · Northeast Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at Rutgers · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

New Haven3%97%Rutgers

Projected 60-84 · Game page

Makes the tournament17%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.2

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-16

Net rating−15.0Rank 312 of 365 · offence 327, defence 281

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-16 (12 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 22%
Wins the conference tournament: 17%
Average seed if in the field: 15.2
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field17%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Syracuserank 67	Away	2%	53-78	L 58-74	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	at Rutgersrank 75	Away	3%	60-84	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs Armyrank 301	Home	61%	72-69	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 17% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at RutgersA win: 20% · a loss: 17%+3 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs ArmyA win: 17% · a loss: 18%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Teshaun SteeleF	1	32.0	18.0	4.0	0.0	−2.9	−0.5
Zoumana TraoreF	1	29.0	8.0	4.0	0.0	−4.6	−1.3
Tristan BurthC	1	26.0	2.0	7.0	2.0	−4.9	−1.3
Danny Young Jr.G	1	25.0	7.0	6.0	2.0	−2.1	0.0
Faquir MosleyG	1	20.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	−2.0	0.0
Tim WalkerG	1	18.0	5.0	3.0	5.0	−1.9	0.0
Brad BallingerF	1	15.0	5.0	1.0	1.0	−1.9	+0.1
Aidan LosiewiczG	1	14.0	0.0	1.0	3.0	−3.5	−0.3
Moussa CamaraC	1	11.0	10.0	3.0	0.0	−1.7	+0.1
Andy RamirezF	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.6	0.0
Jagger BascombeF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−4.4	0.0
Dominick LaDucaG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−4.0	0.0
Justice HannaG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.5	0.0
Owen HotalingG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.5	0.0
Timothy ColemanC	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−4.0	0.0
Isiah RoseF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.5	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.0%rank 97	48.8%rank 37	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.4%rank 139	17.3%rank 352	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.6%rank 297	31.5%rank 139	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	23.2%rank 320	25.3%rank 242	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +3.1 points a game (they shot 28.6%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −15.8
Last season's net rating: −15.9
Last season's minutes returning: 24%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: +0.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 95.4 (rank 327)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 110.3 (rank 281)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 69.4 (rank 359)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +11.1 (rank 67)

Northeast Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Central Connecticut	0-1	0-0	−13.4	95.8	109.2	296
2	Long Island University	0-1	0-0	−14.2	94.5	108.7	307
3	New Haven	0-1	0-0	−15.0	95.4	110.3	312
4	Mercyhurst	0-1	0-0	−17.6	95.1	112.7	335
5	Wagner	0-1	0-0	−18.8	93.1	111.9	342
6	Fairleigh Dickinson	0-2	0-0	−18.8	97.2	116.0	343
7	Stonehill	1-0	0-0	−19.8	92.9	112.7	347
8	Le Moyne	0-1	0-0	−20.7	95.3	116.0	352
9	Chicago State	0-1	0-0	−26.3	92.2	118.5	364