Stonehill Skyhawks

Men's · Northeast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Fordham · Thu 5 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Stonehill6%94%Fordham

Projected 61-81 · Game page

Makes the tournament7%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.6

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-20

Net rating−19.8Rank 347 of 365 · offence 353, defence 328

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 13-20 (8 to 18 wins)
Projected conference record: 7-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 8%
Wins the conference tournament: 7%
Average seed if in the field: 15.6
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field7%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Currynot Division I	Home	—	—	W 84-56
Thu 5 Nov7:30 PM ET	at Fordhamrank 128	Away	6%	61-81	—
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET	at Columbiarank 205	Away	12%	66-81	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 7% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at FordhamA win: 6% · a loss: 7%−1 pts
Mon 9 Nov: at ColumbiaA win: 7% · a loss: 7%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Trenton RuthG	1	31.0	4.0	6.0	6.0	−5.0	−1.6
Eli GreenbergG · transfer from Le Moyne	1	25.0	9.0	7.0	3.0	−5.2	−1.4
Jack MedalieF	1	24.0	18.0	8.0	0.0	−2.4	−0.1
Anquan Boldin Jr.G · transfer from Florida A&M	1	24.0	15.0	4.0	0.0	−3.4	−0.6
Felipe PatinoG · transfer from Southern Miss	1	24.0	15.0	4.0	0.0	−3.8	−0.8
Pearse McGuinnF	1	21.0	9.0	8.0	1.0	−4.8	−1.0
Will BatchelderG	1	16.0	0.0	2.0	1.0	−4.7	−0.8
Ewan SteeleF · transfer from Idaho	1	15.0	7.0	4.0	1.0	−1.9	0.0
Amare AllenG · transfer from Maine	1	10.0	3.0	4.0	0.0	−5.1	−0.6
Kemar GrantG	1	10.0	4.0	5.0	2.0	−2.0	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 153	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.6%rank 155	18.6%rank 133	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 127	31.7%rank 162	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.2%rank 133	25.2%rank 152	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −19.8
Last season's net rating: −16.3
Last season's minutes returning: 10%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.0
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 92.9 (rank 353)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 112.7 (rank 328)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.0 (rank 230)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Northeast Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Central Connecticut	0-1	0-0	−13.4	95.8	109.2	296
2	Long Island University	0-1	0-0	−14.2	94.5	108.7	307
3	New Haven	0-1	0-0	−15.0	95.4	110.3	312
4	Mercyhurst	0-1	0-0	−17.6	95.1	112.7	335
5	Wagner	0-1	0-0	−18.8	93.1	111.9	342
6	Fairleigh Dickinson	0-2	0-0	−18.8	97.2	116.0	343
7	Stonehill	1-0	0-0	−19.8	92.9	112.7	347
8	Le Moyne	0-1	0-0	−20.7	95.3	116.0	352
9	Chicago State	0-1	0-0	−26.3	92.2	118.5	364