California Golden Bears

Men's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: vs Houston · Sun 8 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

Houston96%4%California

Projected 63-84 · Game page

Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.4

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-18

Net rating+4.5Rank 107 of 365 · offence 102, defence 106

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 14-18 (10 to 19 wins)
Projected conference record: 5-13
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 9.4
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field2%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Adams Statenot Division I	Home	—	—	W 115-86
Wed 4 Nov	vs Radfordrank 225	Home	95%	86-66	W 84-70	Right
Sun 8 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs Houstonrank 3	Neutral	4%	63-84	—
Wed 11 Nov11 PM ET	vs USCrank 47	Home	34%	74-79	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 0% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs HoustonA win: 0% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs USCA win: <1% · a loss: 0%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Nojus IndrusaitisG · transfer from Pitt	2	29.5	25.0	3.0	2.5	+1.2	+1.7
Jordan RossG · transfer from Georgia	2	28.0	10.0	2.0	8.0	+1.5	+1.8
Sammie YeanayF	2	23.0	12.0	6.0	3.0	−0.2	+0.8
Michael CooperG · transfer from Wright St	2	23.0	20.0	2.5	2.5	+0.9	+1.2
Jake WilkinsF · transfer from Georgia	2	22.5	12.5	6.5	2.0	+3.4	+2.2
Semetri CarrG	2	19.0	5.0	4.5	5.5	+1.2	+1.1
Mantas KocanasC	2	18.0	4.5	4.0	0.5	−0.3	+0.6
Jovani RuffG	2	15.0	6.5	2.0	0.0	−1.0	+0.3
Dhiaukuei Manyiel DutF	2	9.5	1.0	1.5	0.0	+0.6	+0.5
Amier AliF · transfer from Mississippi St	1	10.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+0.8	+0.5
Gabriel SularskiG	1	5.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	−0.4	+0.1
Jorell ClarkG	1	3.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−0.3	+0.1
BJ FisherG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.6	+0.1
Luke ButlerG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.8%rank 42	50.2%rank 229	50.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.1%rank 301	17.8%rank 308	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	29.4%rank 349	32.4%rank 275	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	23.1%rank 337	24.0%rank 66	25.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +6.7 points a game (they shot 24.1%, league 31.9%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +8.2
Last season's net rating: +12.0
Last season's minutes returning: 21%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +4.2
Change since preseason: −3.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 107.0 (rank 102)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 102.4 (rank 106)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.7 (rank 110)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −7.5 (rank 188)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.6	121.8	88.2	1
2	Louisville	1-0	0-0	+22.3	116.5	94.2	17
3	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+20.3	114.9	94.6	29
4	Miami	0-1	0-0	+20.1	115.9	95.8	31
5	North Carolina	1-0	0-0	+15.7	113.6	98.0	43
6	Syracuse	2-0	0-0	+15.5	115.0	99.5	44
7	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+14.7	114.3	99.6	53
8	Florida State	1-0	0-0	+14.3	113.8	99.5	56
9	NC State	1-0	0-0	+12.8	112.4	99.7	62
10	Notre Dame	2-0	0-0	+12.7	111.4	98.7	63
11	Virginia Tech	2-0	0-0	+12.0	111.1	99.1	68
12	SMU	1-0	0-0	+10.7	110.8	100.1	74
13	Stanford	1-0	0-0	+10.2	111.3	101.1	76
14	Pittsburgh	2-0	0-0	+8.3	108.0	99.7	86
15	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+7.7	106.0	98.4	88
16	Wake Forest	1-1	0-0	+6.8	106.9	100.1	93
17	California	2-0	0-0	+4.5	107.0	102.4	107
18	Boston College	1-0	0-0	+4.0	105.3	101.3	110