Detroit Mercy Titans
Makes the tournament6%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.0
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-17
Net rating−8.0Rank 231 of 365 · offence 221, defence 241
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 13-17 (8 to 19 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 5%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 6%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.0
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field6%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET | at Marquetterank 28 | Away | 2% | 62-89 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | at Xavierrank 33 | Away | 2% | 64-90 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at MarquetteA win: 5% · a loss: 6%−1 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at XavierA win: 5% · a loss: 6%−1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.1%rank 148 | 50.1%rank 155 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.5%rank 158 | 18.5%rank 136 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 132 | 31.7%rank 172 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.6%rank 135 | 25.6%rank 161 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −8.0
- Last season's net rating
- −5.3
- Last season's minutes returning
- 39%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 100.8 (rank 221)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 108.8 (rank 241)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.7 (rank 110)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Horizon League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wright State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.5 | 108.0 | 107.5 | 125 |
| 2 | Oakland | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.1 | 105.0 | 108.1 | 159 |
| 3 | Northern Kentucky | 2-0 | 0-0 | −4.3 | 106.1 | 110.5 | 176 |
| 4 | Green Bay | 1-1 | 0-0 | −4.5 | 104.2 | 108.7 | 180 |
| 5 | Youngstown State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.3 | 100.4 | 106.7 | 204 |
| 6 | Robert Morris | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.4 | 101.6 | 108.0 | 207 |
| 7 | Milwaukee | 0-2 | 0-0 | −7.3 | 100.5 | 107.8 | 222 |
| 8 | Purdue Fort Wayne | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.0 | 100.3 | 108.2 | 230 |
| 9 | Detroit Mercy | 0-0 | 0-0 | −8.0 | 100.8 | 108.8 | 231 |
| 10 | IU Indianapolis | 1-0 | 0-0 | −13.5 | 99.4 | 112.9 | 297 |
| 11 | Cleveland State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −17.3 | 97.7 | 115.0 | 332 |
| 12 | Northern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −20.2 | 96.8 | 117.1 | 351 |