Youngstown State Penguins
Next: at Ohio State · Fri 6 Nov, 6:30 PM ETProjected 65-88 · Game page
Makes the tournament9%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.0
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-15
Net rating−6.2Rank 200 of 365 · offence 236, defence 172
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 19-15 (14 to 24 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 10%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 8%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.0
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field9%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at St. Bonaventurerank 185 | Away | 19% | 62-73 | W 79-71 | Wrong |
| Fri 6 Nov6:30 PM ET | at Ohio Staterank 34 | Away | 3% | 65-88 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | at Central Michiganrank 244 | Away | 43% | 73-76 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at Ohio StateA win: 10% · a loss: 9%+2 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at Central MichiganA win: 8% · a loss: 9%−1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus HolmstromG · transfer from VMI | 1 | 34.0 | 26.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | −3.5 | −0.9 |
| Dom AekinsG · transfer from Duquesne | 1 | 34.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | −0.9 | +0.7 |
| Jaiden HaynesG | 1 | 34.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | −1.3 | +0.5 |
| Jeff NwankwoG · transfer from Oklahoma | 1 | 30.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | +0.7 | +1.5 |
| Kelvin AmoakoC | 1 | 24.0 | 14.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.6 |
| Japhet MoupadeleF · transfer from San José St | 1 | 16.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Jermaine ColemanF · transfer from St Thomas | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −0.2 | +0.3 |
| Jayden TylerG · transfer from Wofford | 1 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −1.2 | +0.2 |
| Kaelen DestinG | 1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.3 | +0.2 |
| Jamar LivingstonG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.8%rank 108 | 49.8%rank 94 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.1%rank 80 | 18.9%rank 89 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 34.5%rank 14 | 30.8%rank 72 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.2%rank 128 | 22.9%rank 27 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.2 expected (+0.8)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −1.5 points a game (they shot 35.3%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +5.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −10.0
- Last season's net rating
- −3.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 5%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −3.0
- Change since preseason
- +3.8
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 100.6 (rank 236)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 106.8 (rank 172)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.4 (rank 171)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −5.0 (rank 161)
Horizon League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wright State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.4 | 108.1 | 107.7 | 124 |
| 2 | Oakland | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 105.2 | 108.2 | 157 |
| 3 | Northern Kentucky | 2-0 | 0-0 | −4.3 | 106.3 | 110.6 | 176 |
| 4 | Youngstown State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.2 | 100.6 | 106.8 | 200 |
| 5 | Robert Morris | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.3 | 101.8 | 108.1 | 203 |
| 6 | Green Bay | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.6 | 103.3 | 109.9 | 211 |
| 7 | Milwaukee | 0-2 | 0-0 | −7.1 | 100.7 | 107.9 | 218 |
| 8 | Purdue Fort Wayne | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.8 | 100.5 | 108.3 | 230 |
| 9 | Detroit Mercy | 0-0 | 0-0 | −8.0 | 101.0 | 109.0 | 233 |
| 10 | IU Indianapolis | 1-0 | 0-0 | −13.5 | 99.5 | 113.0 | 297 |
| 11 | Cleveland State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −17.2 | 97.9 | 115.1 | 332 |
| 12 | Northern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −20.2 | 97.0 | 117.2 | 351 |