Central Michigan Chippewas
Next: vs Alma · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.1
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-20
Net rating−8.9Rank 244 of 365 · offence 212, defence 277
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 13-20 (8 to 18 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-14
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 1%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.1
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at UL Monroerank 338 | Away | 62% | 71-67 | W 83-78 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET | vs Almanot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | vs Youngstown Staterank 200 | Home | 57% | 76-73 | — |
Rooting guide
- Tue 10 Nov: vs Youngstown StateA win: 1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan GarnerF | 1 | 29.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | −1.1 | +0.5 |
| Jalen KampenG | 1 | 25.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | −3.3 | −0.5 |
| Phat Phat BrooksG | 1 | 24.0 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | −0.9 | +0.5 |
| Jaxson WhitakerG | 1 | 24.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.3 | −0.5 |
| Conrad LuczynskiC | 1 | 23.0 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | −1.1 | +0.4 |
| Jayson PettyG · transfer from Kansas City | 1 | 21.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −3.2 | −0.4 |
| Uchenna AmeneG | 1 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
| Brock MendozaC | 1 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −0.9 | +0.3 |
| Jayden HackettG | 1 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.8 | +0.2 |
| Jake BascomF | 1 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −0.8 | +0.2 |
| Kareem AburashedC | 1 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 52.3%rank 30 | 48.8%rank 37 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.7%rank 249 | 18.7%rank 121 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 34.5%rank 13 | 33.1%rank 313 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.0%rank 222 | 25.0%rank 143 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.6 expected (+0.4)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −1.7 points a game (they shot 34.8%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +2.0 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 1-0
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −8.6
- Last season's net rating
- −10.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 40%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −3.9
- Change since preseason
- −0.3
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 101.3 (rank 212)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 110.3 (rank 277)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.4 (rank 171)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −18.3 (rank 269)
Mid-American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.1 | 109.2 | 104.0 | 103 |
| 2 | Akron | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.1 | 108.2 | 103.1 | 104 |
| 3 | Toledo | 0-1 | 0-0 | −0.6 | 105.2 | 105.8 | 132 |
| 4 | Massachusetts | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.9 | 103.4 | 104.3 | 134 |
| 5 | Ohio | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.8 | 106.1 | 107.9 | 144 |
| 6 | Kent State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.8 | 105.2 | 109.0 | 168 |
| 7 | Bowling Green | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.6 | 101.3 | 105.8 | 182 |
| 8 | Eastern Michigan | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.5 | 100.8 | 108.3 | 226 |
| 9 | Central Michigan | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.9 | 101.3 | 110.3 | 244 |
| 10 | Ball State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 97.3 | 107.9 | 260 |
| 11 | Western Michigan | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.1 | 96.3 | 109.4 | 293 |
| 12 | Buffalo | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.7 | 97.9 | 111.6 | 299 |