Massachusetts Minutemen
Next: vs Boston College · Fri 6 Nov, 4 PM ETProjected 71-75 · Game page
Makes the tournament11%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 22-12
Net rating−0.9Rank 134 of 365 · offence 169, defence 126
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 22-12 (16 to 27 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 13-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 10%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 10%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field11%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Troyrank 195 | Away | 33% | 65-70 | W 71-60 | Wrong |
| Fri 6 Nov4 PM ET | vs Boston Collegerank 110 | Neutral | 38% | 71-75 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | vs UMass Lowellrank 319 | Home | 90% | 84-67 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: vs Boston CollegeA win: 11% · a loss: 11%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs UMass LowellA win: 11% · a loss: 11%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan ClaytonG · transfer from Northwestern | 1 | 35.0 | 16.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | +0.5 | +1.6 |
| Danny CarbucciaG | 1 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | −0.8 | +0.8 |
| Dwayne Wimbley Jr.F | 1 | 32.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | −2.2 | −0.1 |
| Junjie WangF · transfer from San Francisco | 1 | 31.0 | 18.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 | +1.7 |
| Abdullah AhmedF · transfer from BYU | 1 | 17.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +2.4 | +1.4 |
| Noa ZemljićG | 1 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | +0.4 |
| Cheick SyllaF | 1 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.5 | +0.4 |
| Dimitri ClercF | 1 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | +0.3 |
| Christian MartinNA | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.3 | +0.2 |
| Heimir HelgasonF | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.3 | +0.2 |
| Rollie CastineyraG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.9%rank 99 | 47.7%rank 7 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.2%rank 105 | 18.1%rank 281 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 33.3%rank 41 | 30.3%rank 50 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 23.5%rank 311 | 22.6%rank 23 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.3 expected (+0.7)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +6.2 points a game (they shot 25.0%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.7 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −4.2
- Last season's net rating
- −2.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 42%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +2.3
- Change since preseason
- +3.3
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 103.4 (rank 169)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 104.3 (rank 126)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.2 (rank 79)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −5.8 (rank 165)
Mid-American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.1 | 109.2 | 104.0 | 103 |
| 2 | Akron | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.1 | 108.2 | 103.1 | 104 |
| 3 | Toledo | 0-1 | 0-0 | −0.6 | 105.2 | 105.8 | 132 |
| 4 | Massachusetts | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.9 | 103.4 | 104.3 | 134 |
| 5 | Ohio | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.8 | 106.1 | 107.9 | 144 |
| 6 | Kent State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.8 | 105.2 | 109.0 | 168 |
| 7 | Bowling Green | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.6 | 101.3 | 105.8 | 182 |
| 8 | Eastern Michigan | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.5 | 100.8 | 108.3 | 226 |
| 9 | Central Michigan | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.9 | 101.3 | 110.3 | 244 |
| 10 | Ball State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 97.3 | 107.9 | 260 |
| 11 | Western Michigan | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.1 | 96.3 | 109.4 | 293 |
| 12 | Buffalo | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.7 | 97.9 | 111.6 | 299 |